U.S. Solar Power Output Sapped by Canadian Wildfires

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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--As hundreds of wildfires continue to burn across Canada, the effects are being felt in the U.S. in the form of bad air quality and reduced power production from solar power stations.

Britt Burt, Industrial Info's vice president of research for the Global Power Industry, said solar power output in the New England and Northeastern regions, 10 states in all, have been the most affected by the smoke and soot coming from fires currently raging in Eastern Canada.

He estimated that about 99 utility-scale solar plants located in those two regions, with aggregate generating capacity of about 1.5 gigawatts, are experiencing diminished power output. Utility-scale is defined as five megawatts and above. The two regions include these states: New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Delaware, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, Vermont and Rhode Island.

Twenty-nine solar plants in New York have been affected by the fires in Eastern Canada, followed by Massachusetts, with 24 affected solar plants, he said in an interview.

"These Canadian wildfires, like other natural disasters before them, such as Winter Storm Uri in 2021, underscore the importance of having a diverse generating portfolio," Burt said. "Renewables are great, but an electric system that relies too heavily on any single fuel is vulnerable to disruption caused by unforeseen circumstances."

The Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Center (CIFFC), a federal Canadian not-for-profit corporation responsible for managing mutual aid and information and resource sharing between federal, provincial, and territorial wildland fire agencies, estimated that as of June 21, there were 413 wildfires burning across Canada that have charred over 6.1 million acres of land. That's equivalent to about 9,531 square miles, roughly the size of the state of Maryland. As of June 21, approximately 202 of these wildfires were deemed to be burning out of control, the CIFFC estimated. Thus far in 2023, through June 21, the CIFFC said Canada has experienced approximately 2,749 wildfires.

Canadian officials have said these wildfires are unprecedented. Officials have projected some of these fires will burn throughout the summer, due to their size, remoteness and availability of fire-fighters. In early May, wildfires in Western Canada led to air quality alerts for several states, including Montana, Colorado, Idaho and Arizona. By late-May, fires erupted in Eastern Canada, specifically Nova Scotia and Ontario, which led to air quality alerts across the Northeastern U.S. The air quality was so poor in some areas that some professional sports had to cancel games.

Wildfires in Western Canada have affected oil and gas production in that region. For more on that, see June 6, 2023, article - Canada's Oil Market Survives Wildfires, Expects Major Growth, May 10, 2023, article - Wildfires Cause Oil & Gas Shutdowns in Alberta, an Industrial Info Weather Impact Update and May 10, 2023, article - Alberta Wildfires Sideline Oil & Gas Development.

Various weather and news agencies have provided estimates of diminished solar power output due to the Eastern Canada wildfires. Bloomberg reported that solar generation in New England fell by more than 50% last week compared to the week before. In the Midwest and Atlantic regions, solar output generation fell by more than 25%. Solar energy on one day in early June fell by about 1,466 megawatts (MW) compared to day-earlier production, according to the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) (Rensselaer, New York).

Citing weather experts with Maxar, a U.S.-based technology and intelligence company, Standard & Poor's, a unit of S&P Global Incorporated (NYSE:SPGI) (New York, New York), reported that solar power generation in early June plummeted by as much as 90% in some areas of the U.S. Northeast compared to what it would have been without the wildfire smoke.

Reuters reported that solar power and wind power output fell in the June 5-9 week, leading to an increase in demand for gas by power producers. Canadian wildfire smoke cut U.S. solar power to 4% of the national energy mix, down from an average of 5% in May, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA).

Meanwhile, wildfires and increased emissions from gas-fired power generation, are combining to increase emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), worsening global climate change.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).