Global Copper, Nickel Prices Could Double in 10 Years

---

Written by Paul Wiseman for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

---

Summary

Mine restarts are generally small, while new mines take years to become operational. And trade restrictions have multiplied since 2009.

---

Supply Challenges Mean Slow Growth

New research from global trade credit insurer Coface says that a combination of factors will create a 10% supply shortfall for copper, nickel and aluminum by 2035. This shortage will constrain supplies and increase costs for manufacturers in North America, where the study was focused, but also in much of the developed world.

Mining will struggle to keep up with exploding demand, using a mix of restarts and entirely new mines. But neither approach is a quick fix.

Most shut-in mines, which can be restarted in a few months or a year, are too small to fill much of a gap. New, larger mines can require up to 17 years for permitting, construction and completion.

But that is only if they are even completed. Coface says only about 1% of planned mines ever reach production. According to Industrial Info Resources data, of the more than 1,500 copper-mining projects of all types being tracked, fewer than 200 are given a high probability of completion.

For those high-probability projects, China leads with $8.26 billion across 45 projects, followed by Argentina ($6.96 billion, five projects) and Kazakhstan ($3.40 billion, 10 projects).

Industrial Info Resources is tracking more than 1,500 copper-mining projects worldwide, with a total investment value (TIV) of more than $325 billion, and more than 430 nickel-mining projects with a TIV of more than $115 billion. Among the nickel projects, 43 are rated as high probability, just fewer than 10%.

Industrial Info Resources offers more information on these projects in its Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Metals & Minerals Project Database, where subscribers can find details--including construction schedules, investment values and necessary equipment--in full lists of reports for the copper-mining and nickel-mining projects.

An Abundance of Shorfalls

Coface quotes some specific numbers: "Supply growth is running well behind demand. Over the next decade, supply is expected to grow just 0.4% a year for aluminum, 1% for copper and 1.5% for nickel. Demand for all three is projected to grow about 1.8% a year, and faster under a net-zero scenario."

Copper is a key element in power-line construction and clean-energy applications. Colface says electrification is responsible for almost three-quarters of global demand for the metal, with data center growth adding more pressure to that supply chain.

Nickel is a key ingredient in the batteries used in electric vehicles (EVs), battery energy-storage system (BESS) units and more. "The refined nickel market could face a deficit of roughly 35% of projected demand, driven largely by battery manufacturing," Coface said.

The copper shortage could get very serious very quickly, according to a recent report by Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), which expects the market to slip into a deficit as soon as 2028. Barring radical changes in investment, the market could be short by 20 million metric tons by 2050, which could greatly slow the shift toward electrification.

It would take $332 billion worth of investment in copper mining to meet the expected demand, BNEF said.

Import/Export Restrictions Multiply Since 2009

Even under ideal economic conditions, mining would struggle to keep up with demand for these and other metals. But the Russian invasion of Ukraine and other global tensions have created even more challenges, leading to trade restrictions, sanctions and tariffs.

"Between 2009 and 2024, export restrictions on critical raw materials increased fivefold," said an April 2026 report from the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

"The largest jumps were early in the period, though 2022 2023 also saw rapid increases, coinciding with a spike in raw material and energy prices after Russia's invasion of Ukraine and heightened geopolitical tensions," adding that these are "historically high levels."

While the report didn't quote exact numbers, this alone is concerning. The OECD also sees an increase in the most restrictive limits, outright export prohibitions, since 2010. In 2024, bans accounted for more than a quarter of all measures introduced.

With global political turmoil accelerating, an increasing number of governments are looking to their own nation's interests, the OECD said. This has led to "Objectives such as generating public revenue and safeguarding domestic supply, boosting processing and value addition, and protecting local downstream industries."

Key Takeaways

• Rising demand from the energy transition and data centers is maxing out supplies of necessary minerals.
• Growing trade restrictions are expected to further reduce supplies.
• This could cause prices for these minerals to double by 2036.

---

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news, and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing, and energy-related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified, and verified plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).