Antofagasta Misses 2025 Copper Guidance

---

Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land Texas)

---

Summary

Chilean miner Antofagasta Minerals missed its 2025 copper production guidance. Volumes are expected to increase this year, while the company continues to develop projects at Centinela and Los Pelambres to boost output.

---

Missed Goal

Chilean miner Antofagasta reported production of 653,700 tonnes of copper in 2025, about 1.6% lower than 2024 volumes and below the 660,000-700,000 tonnes expected by the company last year.

Throughout Q4, Antofagasta produced 177,000 tonnes of copper, about 9.4% more than in Q3. The drop in copper production is due to lower cathode production at the Centinela mine and decreased output at Los Pelambres, both Chilean mines.

Cash costs, excluding by-product credits, for the full year 2025 were US$2.38 per pound. Despite the drop, copper production guidance for 2026 has been set at 650,000--700,000 tonnes, spurred by higher copper grades at the Los Pelambres mine. For this year, cash costs are expected to be between US$2.30 and US$2.50 per pound before by-product credits.

Capital spending for 2026 is forecast at US$3.4 billion, excluding Zaldivar, and is destined for the Centinela concentrator, construction at Los Pelambres, and the expansion of the Encuentro sulphides pit at Centinela.

"Copper's outlook remains compelling--rising demand is being driven by energy security, electrification and increasing uptake of modern technologies, while supply growth remains constrained. We enter the new year with confidence in our ability to deliver safe production alongside the disciplined execution of our portfolio of growth and development projects," said Ivan Arriagada, Antofagasta's chief executive officer.

Byproducts Volumes

Gold production for 2025 totalled 211,300 ounces, 13.1% more than in 2024, thanks to higher volumes from Centinela and Los Pelambres. Molybdenum output, for its part, totalled 15,800 tonnes, up 47.7% from 2024.

Gold and molybdenum are byproducts of copper mining operations.

Project Updates

During Q4, Antofagasta continued advancing on the construction of the second concentrator at the Centinela mine, scheduled for completion by 2027. At Los Pelambres, work is ongoing on the lower and upper sections of the pipeline route, and the desalination plant expansion continues.

At the Zaldivar mine, water supply projects and related investment decisions are currently under study, with decisions expected in 2026. The Cachorro exploration project in Chile received its environmental approval in 2025, allowing for seven years of exploration activity.

Copper Prices

Copper prices have been flirting around the US$6-per-pound mark since the start of this year. A recent Goldman Sachs analysis suggests prices will drop to around US$11,000 per tonne (about US$4.99 per pound) later in the year as the United States offers tariff clarity.

Prices have risen due to market tightness, strong demand from artificial intelligence and data centres, and U.S. policy, based on Goldman Sachs analysis.

Key Takeaways

• Antofagasta's 2025 copper production was 653,700 tonnes, below guidance.
• Gold output was 211,300 ounces; molybdenum reached 15,800 tonnes, both up from 2024.
• Goldman Sachs expects copper prices to decline later in 2026.

---

About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).