Canadian Trade Ambitions Collide in Alberta Referendum

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Canada's prime minister warned of a Brexit-style disaster should an independence referendum pass in Alberta. The issue may already be playing out in regional pipeline developments.

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Canadian Crude Oil Exports up Year on Year

Federal data to March show Canadian crude oil exports to the U.S. market up year-over-year, though the industry could be disrupted should a referendum for an independent Alberta pass.

According to Industrial Info Resources data, the Canadian oil and natural gas sector is home to thousands of completed projects, with LNG Canada's export plant for liquefied natural gas (LNG) from British Columbia among the largest in terms of investment value. It's the only plant in North America delivering LNG outside the continent.

Industrial Info Resources offers more information on LNG Canada's export plant in its Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Plant and Project databases, where readers can learn more--including construction schedules, investment values and necessary equipment--from a detailed plant profile and project report.

U.S. President Donald Trump has embraced a protectionist trade policy with Canada, prompting leaders in Ottawa to press for alternatives. Prime Minister Mark Carney has referred a handful of programs, including LNG, to a Major Projects Office steering efforts to diversify trade. Against that backdrop, however, is a referendum for independence for Alberta, where Canadian Natural Resources invested some US$1.2 billion in a steam-assisted gravity drainage project at its Kirby oil sands production facility in Alberta. More details are available in a project report.

The independence effort is steered by the Alberta Prosperity Project. A January report from cable news broadcaster CNN found that U.S. officials from the Trump administration were supportive of the independence movement and were asked for a US$500 billion line of credit.

Last year, Chantelle de Jong, a member of Alberta's legislative assembly, traveled to Washington D.C. to share ideas on how Alberta can ensure U.S. energy security, despite efforts to cut U.S. trade.

Alberta is the dominant oil producer in Canada, which as a nation is the top oil exporter to the U.S. economy. At some 4 million barrels per day (bpd), Canada accounts for about 60% of total foreign deliveries to U.S. refineries.

In February, the Institute for Research on Public Policy in Montreal said independence was illegal under the Canadian constitution. Alberta Premier Danielle Smith, for her part, has said Alberta should remain in Canada, though she allowed for the referendum to move forward.

On Friday, Carney warned of a repeat of the United Kingdom's chaotic departure from the European Union in 2016 that would come as a result of independence.

"We have to be very careful about this," Carney said, according to the AP. "There's a very strong positive case for Canada, a strong Alberta in a united Canada."

The issue may be playing out in the nation's energy sector. A memorandum of understanding reached between Alberta's government and Carney's administration outlined a path toward a new crude oil export pipeline in British Columbia, in exchange for environmental commitments.

British Columbia, however, cried foul.

"As a country, it's time to stop rewarding bad behavior," Prime Minister David Eby said. "It cannot be the case that the projects that get prioritized in Canada are those where a premier threatens to leave the country."

The referendum is set for October.

By the Numbers

• 11% increase in exports of Alberta's crude oil
• 1 million bpd in the works for cross-border pipelines

Cross-Border Pipelines Still in the Works

Elsewhere, the Prairie Connector pipeline in Alberta, led by South Bow, could carry as much as 450,000 bpd once it's completed by 2028. In the U.S., it would link up to the Bridger pipeline, which could transport about 550,000 bpd of crude from Canada and North Dakota from the U.S.-Canada border to Guernsey, Wyoming.

That project would expand, not diminish, the amount of crude oil sent to the U.S., still Canada's largest trading partner. Alberta is Canada's largest oil producer, though its landlocked and trade would be highly dependent on cross-border transit, both inside and outside of Canada.

Readers can learn more from the Industrial Info Resources GMI Oil & Gas Pipeline Project Database, which offers detailed reports on the Prairie Connector and Bridger pipelines.

Industrial Info Resources is tracking more than 100 pipeline-related projects across Canada, totaling more than US$11 billion of investment.

Much of the U.S. refining sector, meanwhile, is tailored to process heavy crude oil slates--such as what's found in Canada or Saudi Arabia--instead of the light crude oil found in domestic shale basins.

Federal data from Canada show total crude oil exports increased 7% year-over-year to May, with Alberta alone showing an 11% increase from May 2025.

Key Takeaways

• A united Canada is a stronger Canada, Prime Minister Carney says
• The U.S. is Canada's largest trading partner, but diversification is underway

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news, and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing, and energy-related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified, and verified plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).