ERCOT: Supplies Adequate as Hurricane Season Begins

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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--In the midst of the Atlantic hurricane season, the power grid monitor in Texas said the state's comprehensive power supplies should be enough to keep the lights on.

Researchers at Colorado State University said they were expecting an above-average hurricane season this year. They're expecting 17 named storms this year, of which nine will be hurricanes. Four of those are expected to be major hurricanes, with sustained winds of greater than 110 miles per hour (mph).

The 10-year average to 2020 show three major hurricanes per season. Last year, five major hurricanes made landfall, shutting down oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico and impacting refineries along the coast.

Hurricane Beryl, one of two major storms last year, left nearly 3 million people in Texas without power. A report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), the state grid monitor, expects to have enough power on the grid to avoid outage risks during peak summer demand.

"As hurricane season begins, ERCOT has noted wind generation poses the biggest seasonal risk to reserves, but robust battery storage growth has lessened the risk of declaring an emergency energy alert," Fed analysts wrote Monday.

New power generation grew year-over-year to 2024, with solar power contributing the most to additions since 2023. As with the national average, natural gas accounts for the highest share of power on the grid. It is followed, however, by wind energy, which saw a 24% increase from 2023 levels.

Click on the image at right for an ERCOT graph showing Texas electricity grid generation from 2007 through 2024.

The Dallas Fed said it expected a banner year for solar power in Texas this year, with a 54% increase in nameplate capacity expected from last year. That could change, however, given Washington's current preference for fossil-fuel programs.

State legislators in Texas, meanwhile, adjourned June 2 before a handful of bills impeding new wind and solar projects could be taken up by the state House of Representatives. For more on that, see June 5, 2025, article - Texas Legislative Efforts to Throttle Renewables Fail, For Now.

Apart from legislative and hurricane risks, heat could be a factor this summer. A May report from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) said southern states in particular could see the grid tested by "periods of more extreme summer conditions."

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC), meanwhile, warned that U.S. electricity demand could reach a four-year high, straining the grid even further.

Heavy rains in the U.S. south made way for seasonal temperatures, though Houston-area highs are only expected to reach the 90s this week.

The National Hurricane Center on Tuesday said no cyclonic activity in the Atlantic was expected over the next seven days. A hurricane watch is in place for parts of western Mexico due to threats from Tropical Storm Erick. That storm is expected to strengthen to a hurricane by Wednesday.

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