EU Breaking Away from Russian Gas, IEA Finds

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Faced with a deadline to curb imports of Russian gas, the International Energy Agency found an "unprecedented" breakout of LNG projects in North America is supporting energy security in the European Union. But the bloc risks replacing one dependence with another.

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LNG to the Rescue for European Economy

The European Union is making strides in breaking its energy links to Russia by way of exploiting the surge in the capacity for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports from North America, the International Energy Agency said.

Industrial Info is tracking more than 100 projects across North America tied to exports of LNG, with expansions to the Sabine Pass; Calcasieu Pass, led by Venture Global; and Plaquemines, steered by Cheniere Energy, taking the lead. All three are situated along the U.S. Gulf Coast, and combine for about 50% of the feed gas that supports exports of liquefied natural gas, according to Industrial Info Resources data.

Industrial Info Resources offers more information on these facilities in its Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Project Database, where readers can find details--including construction schedules, investment values and necessary equipment--on the Sabine Pass, Calcasieu Pass and Plaquemines facilities.

A report published Tuesday by the International Energy Agency (IEA) found projects like those have helped the European economy migrate natural gas trade away from Russia, a priority that gained importance after the 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Prior to the conflict, the European Union depended heavily on Russia for natural gas supplies, with several midstream networks running through Ukraine. The twin Nord Stream pipeline, a Baltic Sea network controlled by Russian energy company Gazprom, was knocked out of commission by an act of sabotage, leaving the bloc desperate for alternatives.

Legislation adopted in 2025 gives the bloc until next year to phase out Russian natural gas imports. The IEA found that European measures aimed at diversity should lead to an annual reduction of about 1.1 trillion cubic feet of Russian natural gas by 2028, leaving Europe looking for supplies outside the continent.

"This changing market environment presents Central and Eastern Europe with an opportunity to diversify gas supplies further by strengthening transatlantic LNG partnerships, while also expanding cross-border infrastructure and adopting more flexible procurement strategies," the IEA found.

While backing away from Russian supplies, the IEA found there was an "unprecedented period of expansion" underway in new liquefaction capacity across North America. Gulf Coast installations in the U.S., meanwhile, continue to do much of the heavy lifting, despite emerging concerns about sovereignty and trade among Western allies.

France and the Netherlands last year were the largest European imports of U.S-sourced LNG, accounting for about 20% of total U.S. LNG exports, U.S. federal data show.

Canada, meanwhile, is getting into the game as well. The Ksi Lisims project, a floating installation slated for the coast of British Columbia, in May brokered the first-ever Canadian offtake agreement with a European partner when German energy company SEFE signed up for 1 million tons per annum from the project.

Readers can learn more about Ksi Lisims from a detailed project report.

Toronto is hosting an international investment conference where Prime Minister Mark Carney is hoping to drum up more business with potential European partners.

By the Numbers

• 80% of Europe's LNG could come from U.S. supplies
• 20% of total U.S. LNG exports went to France and the Netherlands last year

Eggs Moving from One Basket to Another?

Elsewhere, the conflict in the Middle East is adding another layer of concern to European energy security because of damage to infrastructure in Qatar, a leading LNG exporter. Declines between March and July of supplies of LNG from the Middle East, the IEA found, were about equal to half of Germany's entire natural gas consumption last year.

Meanwhile, the IEA warned that "infrastructure alone will not be enough to reinforce regional supply security." And while the U.S. remains the world leader in LNG exports, the European Union may be wary of replacing one dependency with another.

With U.S. President Donald Trump pursuing a decidedly protectionist trade policy, Dan Jorgenson, the head of energy at the European Commission, said the bloc should look beyond the U.S. to other partners--such as Canada and North African producers--for true diversity.

A report earlier this year from the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis found the U.S. could account for as much as 80% of European imports of LNG by the end of the decade, a dependency that could only solidify further due to outages in Qatar.

Key Takeaways

• Europe doing well with gas trade diversity.
• But it runs the risk of replacing one dependency with another.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news, and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing, and energy-related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified, and verified plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).