Global Elections May Affect Energy Transition Trajectories Promised in COP28

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Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Elections scheduled for 2024 will affect around half the world's population and gross domestic product (GDP). These elections, in turn, could affect the promises made at the COP28 climate change conference, wherein the "beginning of the end of fossil fuels" was trumpeted loudly. The United States, the EU, India, Venezuela, Indonesia, Mexico and Ukraine (depending on what the war allows) are among the most significant COP28 attendees on the 2024 election list.

As reported last week, climate change and energy transition progress are among the long list of issues and agendas that will be on the line in 2024, and the near future beyond. This is especially the case in the U.S. and EU, which have been leaders in energy transition progress--and are looking at the possibilities of significant changes.

But for many in the West, issues of national and economic security may trump climate change as deciding issues--but in the process would still affect energy transition issues.

For Industrial Info's Geoffrey S. Lakings, the question revolves around "What will those voters express? Will they align with decisions ostensibly made at COP28?" He added, "Do climate protesters turn into voters?"

The U.S.
With incumbent President Joe Biden struggling with approval ratings and only marginally leading--if at all--against any of the top Republican hopefuls (Donald Trump, Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis), and Donald Trump with huge leads over all Republican challengers, a seismic shift in climate policy could be in the offing in the U.S.

While Trump's election loss denial and subsequent actions dismayed most party centrists, there is currently no serious contender--and longtime Trump loyalists seem more determined than ever to show that 2020 was rigged, by getting him back into office.

A second Trump administration would likely reopen Gulf of Mexico leasing for oil and gas drilling and scale back climate change rules like methane emissions standards, along with investments in hydrogen, wind, solar and other fossil fuel alternatives.

On the Democrat side, Biden seems determined to seek re-election, and he also currently has no significant challengers.

A growing non-climate issue that could push voters more red-ward is the flood of immigrants now being funneled out of Texas and Florida toward Democrat strongholds in the north. When Democratic Party leaders such as Alderperson Andre Vasquez in Chicago say, "You're hearing sentiments that are not dissimilar from what you would hear at [Donald] Trump rallies where asylum-seekers are referred to as illegals," it reveals their worry about a voter backlash. So even though that is not a climate issue, it could lead to the election of more conservative, less energy-transition-leaning leaders.

The EU on the Bubble
Similarly to the U.S., many EU voters are expressing greater concerns about unabated immigration--worries that are giving rise to far-right parties. At the same time, general voter unrest is prompting both sides to consider more extremist positions, meaning that the far left is also gaining strength, according to The Economist. Any move toward either extreme could alter climate change momentum. Plus, increasing fragmentation means coalitions including extremist parties will be more inevitable.

The Economist expects four of the nine EU-affiliate parliamentary elections to result in changes this year. Austria and Portugal are expected to turn right, and elections for the EU's own parliament may do the same. The U.K., on the other hand, will probably install the Labor Party this year, in a move toward the left.

Russia
Elections are scheduled this year in Russia, although Vladimir Putin is considered, for several reasons, to be unbeatable.

Asia
Indonesia (February) and India (April), the latter of which is the world's most populous democracy, are also holding elections. In India, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) expect to get a third term, but they face strong opposition in some regions.

Latin America
Venezuela is expected to go to the polls in the second half of 2024, but most opposition individuals have been removed, so no change is expected there. And for Mexico (June), the ruling party's candidate, Claudia Sheinbaum, has a commanding lead in the polls.

The Picture
While climate change issues are not likely the driving forces behind the upheaval, they will be affected, nonetheless. Will right-leaning leaders delay or undo completely some of the green funding? Those committed to the energy transition have already proclaimed that current funding levels and projections are light years short of what is needed to attain the 1.5-Centigrade 2050 goals embraced by most nations.

For Lakings, it is clear that "voters have not yet decided that energy transition and climate change are more important than their immediate energy and economic security. They do not yet see themselves as part of the global community, working across political and economic borders to innovate their way into a more sustainable future."

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).