IIR's January 15 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
U.S. shoots down Houthi missile fired at American warship in the Red Sea		A U.S. fighter jet shot down an anti-ship cruise missile fired toward an American destroyer in the Red Sea from Houthi militant-controlled areas of Yemen, the U.S. military has said. The first attack by the Iran-backed rebels after American-led strikes will add to fears of regional escalation after deadly new clashes on Israel's northern border with Lebanon. As the war in Gaza passed the 100-day mark - the death toll in Gaza passed 24,000, according to the Palestinian Health Ministry. The White House signaled that it is now "the right time" for its ally to scale back its war against Hamas.... Protests erupted around the world over the weekend calling for a cease-fire	NBC News	Protestors Block SQM Lithium Mine in Chile
Frigid temps cut U.S. natural gas supply as demand soars, Texas faces possible shortfall		U.S. natural gas output fell to a preliminary 11-month low on Sunday as frigid weather froze wells across the country, while gas demand for heating and power generation was on track to hit record highs. In Texas the state's power grid operator, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), forecast electric demand on Tuesday would top last summer's all-time high and warned power supplies could fall short on both Monday and Tuesday.	Reuters	Natural Gas Futures Spike Amid Preparation for Coming Winter Storm
Crude Oil Price Forecast - Crude Oil Markets Drift Lower		WTI has dropped a bit in limited trading on Monday as it was Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the United States, so the futures markets weren't completely open for the 23 hours they typically are. That being said, it looks like we are heading right back into the middle of the overall consolidation, which makes sense considering that the market really doesn't know what to do about attacks in the Red Sea, interest rates, geopolitical concerns, possible recession, the U.S. dollar, and a whole host of things.	FXEmpire	U.S. Gas Pipelines Set for Up to $5 Billion in 1Q Kickoffs
Offshore Oil Is Booming With Vessel Markets Near All-Time High		The U.S. oil and gas sector has kicked off the new year on the backfoot with market sentiment as bearish as it was a year ago. Commodity analysts at Standard Chartered have reported that demand pessimism is once again dominating, with traders worried that oil demand will weaken in the U.S. and Europe. Part of Wall Street is just as bearish, with analysts warning of a challenging risk/reward scenario for the sector in the near-term with a heightened risk of a mild recession approaching. Despite the bearishness, investors are still betting heavily on one corner of the market: offshore oil and gas. Global offshore oil and gas markets posted impressive growth in 2023, with the proprietary Clarksons Offshore Index that tracks rig count as well as offshore support vessels (OSV) and subsea day rates climbing 27% to a multi-year high of 106 points. Even better for the bulls, the Clarksons Offshore Index is projected to reach all-time high in 2024	Oilprice	API Urges Biden Administration to Step Up Oil & Gas Leasing, Streamline Permitting Process
Natural Gas Price Forecast - Natural Gas Markets Stagnant on Holiday		Natural gas markets were relatively stagnant during the Monday session, which should not be a huge surprise considering it was Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the United States and it would have only had limited trading in the futures markets. Natural Gas Technical Analysis The natural gas markets have gone back and forth early during the trading session on Monday as we continue to pay close attention to the weather in the northeastern part of the United States. That being said, the market is a little overextended, so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out. The $3.33 level has been major resistance in the past and the fact that we are stalling here does make a certain amount of sense. If we can break above the $3.45 level, then maybe we have further to go. Otherwise, the $3.00 level underneath being broken to the downside would be negative. We are awfully late in the year to get overly excited about the idea of natural gas going higher. Because of this, if you are bullish on natural gas you need to be very nimble and be willing to take profit at the first signs of trouble.	FXEmpire	Proposed Texas LNG Facility Gets Preliminary Offtake Agreement
China's record crude, coal, iron ore imports don't tell the whole story		China's imports of crude oil, coal and iron ore all soared to record highs in 2023, but this seemingly strong performance by the world's top commodity buyer comes with a few caveats. Crude oil imports rose 11% in 2023 from the prior year to 11.28 million barrels per day (bpd), according to customs data released on Jan. 12. This eclipsed the prior record of 10.81 million bpd from 2020, and came as China re-opened its economy after ending its strict zero-COVID policy at the end of 2022. But is the gain in crude oil imports as impressive as it first appears? In volume terms, 2023's arrivals were 1.11 million bpd higher than those in 2022. However, this is well below the forecast for a 1.8 million bpd increase in China's oil demand from the International Energy Agency (IEA). Of course, imports and total demand aren't the same thing, but looking at the other factors at work in China's crude oil market doesn't offer much support to the bullish view.	Reuters	Will the World Cook or Decarbonize? Ask China, Says IEA
Week 01/08/24 - 01/15/24		On this MLK day, we acknowledge much of the world pursues a dream of a just, equitable, sustainable energy transition honoring environmental stewardship. However, there is yet much debate how the world will traverse where they find themselves today to a decarbonized future. Though, there was a start in the most recent COP28 UAE where ~200 Nations pledged to explore winding down fossil fuels while growing Renewables 3-fold by 2030. However, half of the World's GDP is going to the polls here in 2024; so what might take place in Azerbaijan for COP29 as the outcome of these Elections take place.. As there is seemingly much emphasis by voters being placed on energy & economic security; more-so than the Energy/Environment/Sustainability pledged at COP28 UAE because these pledges will come with a significant investment.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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