Is Venezuela All It's Cracked Up to Be?

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Figures from the Trump administration on the oil potential in Venezuela may be vastly overstated. Meanwhile, Venezuela is near the bottom in terms of energy-related investments in South America.

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Rhetoric Doesn't Create Oil

Market enthusiasm for Venezuelan crude oil deals doesn't match the investment potential, with Industrial Info Resources finding Brazil leads South America in terms of value.

According to Industrial Info Resources data, Brazil leads the continent with nearly 600 projects with a combined investment value of $41.7 billion. By comparison, there are 16 active projects in the Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Project Database for Venezuela, with a combined investment value of just $148 million.

Industrial Info Resources offers more information on related projects across South America in its GMI Project Database, where readers can find details--including construction schedules, investment values and necessary equipment--in a full list of project reports.

Venezuelan oil prospects were in the spotlight following the January arrest of former President Nicolas Maduro by U.S. military forces. Since then, there has been heightened interest by international energy companies looking for an early foothold in a country that sits on the largest deposits of crude oil in the world.

Right now, Chevron Corporation dominates the landscape for U.S. companies operating in Venezuela, given its long-standing relationship with Petroleos de Venezuela, better known as PDVSA. In April, Petropiar S.A., a Venezuelan joint venture in which Chevron holds a 30% stake, secured rights to develop parts of the Orinoco Belt, a treasure trove for crude oil.

Struggling for much of the year to address inflationary issues stemming from the conflict in the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump early last month touted what he said was the largest oil deal in history, staking federal U.S. claims to 17 Venezuelan oilfields that the White House said combined for 65 billion barrels in proven reserves.

Both governments in turn tapped North American Blue Energy Partners (NABEP) to lead developments. NABEP later handed the U.S. Department of Defense Department a 35% stake in the company, while the State Department secured the rights to 20% of production "from all current and future fields" that could be operated by NABEP.

By the Numbers

• 571,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude delivered to U.S. market
• 1.1 million bpd in Venezuelan crude oil production on average in September

Doubts Have Lingered Since Maduro's Arrest

Questions emerged early in the year, however, over the validity of White House claims on Venezuelan oil potential and investor interest. Early-year analysis from Industrial Info Resources found it would eat up much of the spending outlined by global supermajors for the year just for new upgraders at Venezuelan oil refiners.

For more information, see Industrial Info Resources' January 6, 2026, article - Big 'Ifs' on Venezuelan Oil Sector Revival.

Apart from the diluting agents needed to lower the viscosity of Venezuela's heavy crude enough to move it through pipelines, upgraders are needed before the oil can be refined into useable petroleum products. Venezuela has four upgraders, but only three are operational. Combined, the three units have 670,000 barrels per day (bpd), data from Industrial Info Resources show.

Oil production peaked, meanwhile, in the 1970s at 3.7 million bpd. Secondary sources reporting to economists at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) put production at about 1.1 million bpd in September, the last full month for which data are available.

Industrial Info Resources is tracking Venezuelan oil and gas facilities, petroleum refining facilities, and other petroleum investments reaching a total of only $207.5 million.

The potential, however, may be widely overstated, based on recent reporting from the Associated Press (AP) on Venezuela's proved crude oil reserves, which the Trump administration put at 65 billion barrels.

White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers told the AP last week that the deal giving the U.S. government tacit control over the Venezuelan oil sector came with little investments, while at the same time supporting the U.S. refinery sector.

U.S. refiners are tailored to process heavier slates of crude oil, such as what's found in Canada and Venezuela, rather than the light, sweet crude found in U.S. shale deposits. Federal U.S. data for the week ending October 16 show Venezuelan imports averaged 571,000 bpd, placing it at the No. 2 spot behind Canada. Imports that week were up nearly 90% year-on-year.

But Francisco Monaldi, a Venezuelan specialist at Rice University, said the Trump administration vastly over-estimated the proved reserve figures for Venezuela.

"They are inflated by a factor of nearly three," he told the AP.

Key Takeaways

• No easy path for Venezuelan oil sector recovery
• Reserve figures touted by the White House were widely overstated

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news, and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing, and energy-related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified, and verified plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).