Middle East Conflict Impacts Global Refining

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Written by Hillary Stevenson, Vice President for Energy Intelligence for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Refiners have had mixed reactions to supply and demand shifts due to the Middle East conflict, with some increasing runs--particularly distillates--while others struggle to source crude supply and have seen a few sustained direct damages.

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• United States: High refinery runs and refined product/crude exports to support global supply shortages.
• Europe: Some delays in maintenance to increase/maintain runs.
• UAE: Ongoing Middle East geopolitical tensions and disruptions to key export routes have increased uncertainty for crude oil and natural gas exports, creating near-term risks for government revenues and energy-sector investment. However, the UAE's strong fiscal position, strategic storage and export infrastructure, and expanding downstream refining and petrochemical capacity, are expected to support resilience and sustain long-term growth in the refining sector.
• Bahrain: The Sitra Refinery in Bahrain has been materially impacted by the Middle East conflict, with drone attacks causing severe damage to the diesel hydrotreater unit. Restart of this unit is not expected until November 2026.
  In addition, two hydrogen production units have also been damaged and are still under assessment. Several other units remain offline or have been operating at reduced capacity during the period of disruption. As a result, the refinery is expected to take some time to return to normal operating levels.
• Iran: The Middle East conflict has caused operational disruptions, throughput reductions and project delays across several Iranian refineries. The LORC Lavan Refinery and PGSOC Bandar Abbas Refinery have experienced the most direct operational impacts from the conflict.
  In addition, several refinery expansion and upgrade projects have faced delays due to supply-chain constraints and heightened operational risks. Many Iranian refineries have also been forced to defer scheduled maintenance shutdowns in order to maintain fuel supply and support domestic market requirements during the period of disruption.
• Iraq: The ongoing Middle East conflict disrupted operations at two major refineries in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq--Kar Group's Erbil Refinery--and the Lanaz Refinery--due to drone attacks, although both facilities have since resumed normal operations.
• lsrael: During the ongoing Middle East conflict, the 197,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) Haifa Refinery sustained damages and its capacity was temporarily derated, although the refinery is now striving to maintain full throughput.
• Qatar: However, due to ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the Ras Laffan Refinery underwent a precautionary shutdown in 2Q26 and is currently operating at reduced throughput. Similarly, since March 2026, the Mesaieed Refinery has been operating at reduced capacity and has postponed its planned crude and condensate shutdown until 2027 due to regional operational challenges.
• Kuwait: Due to recent geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the 346,000-bpd Mina Al-Ahmadi Refinery and the 454,000-bpd Mina Abdullah Refinery were damaged. As a result, since March 2026, the Mina Al-Ahmadi and Al Zour refineries have been operating at reduced capacity, while Mina Abdullah remains under shutdown.
• Egypt: Egyptian refineries have remained largely unaffected by the Middle East conflict and are operating normally.

The Industrial Info Resources Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Petroleum Refining Plant Database offers a full list of detailed reports for refineries mentioned in this article.

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