Researchers Lower Atlantic Hurricane Forecast

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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Researchers at Colorado State University (CSU) have lowered their Atlantic hurricane forecast in what's been something of an uneventful year so far regarding storm development.

"Sea surface temperatures across the eastern and central Atlantic are slightly warmer than normal, but not as warm as they were last year at this time," CSU researchers said in lowering their forecast for named storms from 17 to 16 (three of which have already occurred). This includes eight hurricanes (previously nine), out of which three (previously four) could strengthen into major hurricanes (a category 3 or higher on the Saffir/Simpson scale, with sustained low-level winds of at least 111 miles per hour). The Colorado researchers said the forecasted hurricane season is "slightly above-normal."

The researchers noted the Gulf Coast, from the Florida Panhandle to Brownsville, Texas, still has a 31% chance of getting hit this year. The historic average is 27%. The East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, has a 25% chance.

"As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season," the CSU report warned.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) characterizes an "average" season as one with 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

Last year saw storms form earlier than usual in the Atlantic, with Hurricane Beryl forming in June. Beryl was a rare Category 5 storm that preceded what was dubbed a "hyperactive" hurricane season. Millions of people lost power last year due to the impact from Beryl.

Rafael was a late-season hurricane that made landfall in Cuba as a Category 3 storm in November. The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), an agency that monitors storm impacts on offshore energy, showed 25.7% of the oil production and 13.1% of the natural gas production from the U.S. territorial waters of the Gulf of Mexico (designated as the Gulf of America by the Trump administration) was offline due to the storm.

Gulf Coast operators were given time to practice their response plans during Hurricane Preparedness Week, which ran from May 5-9. For more on that, see May 9, 2025, article - Hurricane Preparedness Week: Gulf Coast Energy Sector Faces Annual Test of Resilience.

Elsewhere, in its Short-Term Energy Outlook for July, the U.S. Department of Energy mentioned hurricanes only when discussing possible obstacles to U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas.

There were 18 named storms, including 11 hurricanes, for last year's storm season. Four of those storms--Beryl, Debby, Helene and Milton--were responsible for most of the estimated $225 billion in damage.

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