Rising SAF Demand Opens Doors for U.S. Ethanol-to-Jet (ETJ) Alternative Fuel Processors

Written by Paul Wiseman for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

Summary

Hydro-processed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), sustainable aviation fuel's (SAF) traditional feedstock, lacks supplies to meet predicted demand. ETJ requires a second processing layer, but feedstock is cheaper and more plentiful than HEFA's.

Narrow Path to Clean Flying

Growing demand for cleaner fuel for aviation, the hardest-to-clean transportation sector, is opening doors for a new source for sustainable aviation fuel. That would be to convert ethanol to sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), a process known as ethanol to jet (ETJ) or alcohol-to-jet (ATJ).

Industrial Info Resources is tracking four ETJ projects in the U.S. with a total investment value (TIV) of $1.6 billion.

Unlike cars, trains, trucks and other earth-based transportation, jets cannot be electrified, at least not now. SAF, therefore, is the only answer, and finding sufficient supply to make a dent in crude-based jet fuel is a growing challenge. Currently, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), SAF will account for about 2% of total jet fuel use in the U.S. in 2026.

By 2050, worldwide demand for SAF could exponentially multiply from its current 1.2 million tonnes (2026) to 6.3 million tonnes in 2030, and 40 million tonnes by 2050 if all announced mandates are implemented. Those figures are according to a September 16, 2026, blog by Lux Research.

That's a huge problem for current feedstock supplies.

Bases for the current majority of SAF feedstocks, hydro-processed esters and fatty acids (HEFA), rely largely on food-chain waste and crops, including soybeans. Both of these, especially the former, are difficult to ramp up to supply SAF growth of the magnitude predicted.

Opportunity for Ethanol

That supply dilemma is opening doors for new ETJ plants in the U.S., according to Industrial Info Resources' VP of Energy Intelligence Hillary Stevenson.

"In the last two years we've seen the first ETJ plant come online and other projects announced to either build new ETJ plants or add ETJ to existing ethanol plants," she said.

Gevo Incorporated is planning two ATJ plant conversions, a $600 million ethanol plant conversion in North Dakota and reviving a decommissioned isobutanol plant to in Minnesota. Gevo had proposed a grassroot ATJ plant in South Dakota, but that project was put on hold. The Industrial Info Resources Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Alternative Fuel Project Database offers detailed project reports.

Choppy Waters Ahead

As with most transitions, this one is not without challenges. One advantage for ATJ/ETJ is that its feedstock costs less than that for HEFA, according to a report by Resources for the Future (RFF), a nonpartisan and nonprofit research institution based in Washington, D.C.

RFF quotes U.S. Department of Agriculture wholesale price data for soybean oil--a major source of HEFA in the U.S.--as averaging $3-$4 per gallon, versus petroleum jet fuel's $2-to-$3 per gallon. That means HEFA's feedstock--before refining and other overhead--costs more than jet fuel's finished product. It is only actually viable with incentives and mandates.

And for supply, there's demand-side competition with biodiesel/renewable diesel, and human and animal food uses.

For ETJ, corn-based ethanol is generally cheaper and more plentiful as a whole, being used extensively for automotive fuel.

But automotive fuel is a considerable ethanol competition, both domestically and for export. How much would actually be available for SAF conversion? And how much corn is needed for food? How much farmland can be dedicated to fuel instead of food? These are already significant questions.

Also, ETJ requires an extra processing step compared to HEFA--first getting the corn to ethanol, then to SAF, which adds its own costs.

The other issue with double processing is that each step generally burns fossil fuels--natural gas in many cases--which would effectively reduce the low-carbon gains of ETJ compared to those of HEFA.

But for now, ETJ has entered the market with the first production in Georgia, with more units being considered. In Soperton, Georgia, LanzaJet Incorporated completed the Freedom Pines SAF and renewable diesel demonstration plant in January 2024. The $100 million project is generally considered the world's first ethanol-to-jet fuel plant.

Key Takeaways

• Current feedstocks for SAF will be unable to fuel the expected demand growth by 2030 and beyond.
• Building/converting/extending plants to converting ethanol to SAF--known as ETJ--is attracting investment dollars in the U.S.
• How that competes with ethanol as a gasoline additive remains to be seen.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).