Solar Ascending in Latest U.S. Forecast

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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--In the face of political headwinds, U.S. federal data show renewable energy, led by wind and solar, is on pace to increase by more than 25% from 2025 levels.

Various media outlets on Wednesday reported U.S. President Donald Trump may be axing some $12 billion worth of clean energy projects. That follows a decision last week to slash $7.65 billion in renewable projects, stoking partisan divisions over the shutdown of the federal government over spending priorities.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the statistical arm of the Department of Energy, reported in its monthly market report for October, however, that renewables were advancing.

Reported in billion kilowatt-hours (BkWh), the EIA said it expects total solar electricity supply to reach 380 BkWh and increase by 17% by next year to flirt with 450 BkWh.

"In 2025, 68% of small-scale solar will come from rooftop solar installations in the residential sector," EIA analysts wrote Tuesday. "Total capacity is expected to be 60 gigawatts (GW) in 2025 and 67 GW in 2026."

Wind power, meanwhile, is on pace to increase by 5% annually by 2026, even as the government tries to thwart development through stop-work orders. A recent stop-work order for the Revolution Wind facility was overturned by the courts after a judge ruled the administration's order lacked "factual findings."

Coal, a commodity for which Trump hopes for a revival, is on pace for a 3% decline from 2025 levels by next year. Though legislation was enacted to keep coal plants online, the EIA said it expects about 4% of the existing plants to retire by the end of the year.

Demand for coal-fired power nevertheless increased by around 15% during the first half of the year, driven largely by higher natural gas prices. Henry Hub, the U.S. benchmark for the price of natural gas, was trading at around $3.44 per million British thermal units on Wednesday, compared to levels closer to $2.50 at this time last year.

Regarding the economy, the EIA expects U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) to increase at an annual rate of 1.8% this year and move to 2.4% by next year. Based on rival estimates from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), 2026 growth in U.S. GDP is expected at 2.1% annually. China, the second-largest economy after the United States, sees GDP increase 4.8% for 2025 and 4.5% for 2026, according to OPEC.

The EIA did not offer GDP estimates for foreign countries. Analysts for the EIA added that GDP could be as high as 3.8% for the second quarter, which could result in an upward revision in growth in next month's report.

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