Typhoon Dolphin Poised to Threaten Okinawa Before Tracking Toward Eastern China

Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst (Sugar Land, Texas)

Summary

Typhoon Dolphin is forecast to remain a strong tropical cyclone as it passes Okinawa before tracking toward eastern China, where damaging winds, flooding rainfall, and infrastructure disruptions are possible early next week.

Typhoon Targets Eastern China Coast

Typhoon Dolphin continues to track west-northwest across the western North Pacific. This tropical system is forecast to remain a powerful typhoon through the remainder of the week before approaching Okinawa, Japan. Landfall is forecast for the early morning of Monday, August 10 (CST) along China's central east coast.

While the storm has shown signs of gradual weakening, it is expected to maintain typhoon strength for several days. Dolphin will bring the potential for damaging winds, heavy rainfall and coastal impacts across portions of the Ryukyu Islands before shifting the threat toward Zhejiang Province early next week.

Impacts Shift from Okinawa to China's East Coast

Dolphin has spent much of its life over open water, limiting its impacts to marine interests. The first significant land impacts are expected across Okinawa between late Thursday and Friday local time, where typhoon-force winds, torrential rainfall and localized coastal flooding are possible as the compact cyclone passes nearby.

Beyond Okinawa, forecast confidence has increased that Dolphin will continue along a west-northwesterly track across the East China Sea. Current guidance brings the center ashore in central Zhejiang Province, south of Shanghai, early next week.

Although the cyclone is expected to weaken before landfall due to increasing wind shear and cooling sea surface temperatures, it is still likely to reach the coast as a strong typhoon or severe tropical storm. Dolphin is expected to yield damaging winds, along with flooding rainfall, and disruptions to transportation, manufacturing and regional power infrastructure. Heavy rainfall may also extend well inland after landfall as the circulation interacts with the rugged terrain of southeastern China.

Favorable Conditions Give Way to Gradual Weakening

Satellite imagery shows Dolphin maintaining a compact inner core with a small eye, although the western eyewall has periodically eroded and reformed. Environmental conditions remain generally favorable, with warm sea-surface temperatures of 29-30°Celsius (84-86°Fahrenheit) and low vertical wind shear. However, the cyclone is traversing an area where the warm ocean layer is relatively shallow, limiting the available ocean heat content despite the warm surface waters.

The storm is being steered west-northwest along the southern flank of a strong subtropical ridge centered over the Sea of Japan. Strengthening ridging behind a passing trough is expected to maintain its west-northwest track into the East China Sea.

As Dolphin approaches China, increasing southwesterly wind shear, cooler upwelled waters generated by its own slow movement, and eventual interaction with land are expected to accelerate weakening before the system dissipates over southeastern China.

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