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IIR Weekly Market Scorecard

IIR Weekly Scorecard: Iranian Deal was Refused.. Markets Troubled..

Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Released Monday, September 28, 2026

IIR Weekly Scorecard: Iranian Deal was Refused.. Markets Troubled..
Written for IIR News Intelligence by Geoffrey S Lakings (Houston, TX)
Event MarCon* IIR Comment Outlet IIR News
Iranian minister says only negotiation can end conflict after Trump rejects Hormuz deal AI Summary: Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi insisted only a negotiated solution based on June's agreement can resolve the U.S.-Iran conflict, awaiting formal feedback via mediators despite President Trump's public rejection. While President Pezeshkian stressed overcoming mutual distrust and affirmed Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's health, Washington highlighted crippling sanctions under "Operation Economic Outcast," whose efficacy remains contested due to persistent Chinese trade. BBC Saudi Arabia Hands Out Oil & Gas Production Well Contracts to SLB during War
Moscow planning more acts of sabotage in Europe, EU foreign policy chief warns AI Summary: EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas urged Europe to act preemptively against planned Russian sabotage aimed at undermining Western support for Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky condemned Russian strikes in Kharkiv as terrorism. Concurrently, Swiss voters overwhelmingly rejected a proposal reinforcing strict neutrality, while South Korea initiated security screening for two North Korean soldiers captured on the Ukrainian front. Independent FERC-NERC: Winter Grid Gains, but Persistent Risks Remain
Oil prices rise 2% after Trump rejects Iran peace deal Oil prices climbed about ​2% on Monday after US President Donald Trump rejected a peace deal from Iran to resolve their conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
Qatari mediators are expected to hold separate talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in New York and with ⁠the US side on Monday or Tuesday, an official briefed on the negotiations told Reuters. 		Reuters Can Global Markets be Tamed by Domestic Decisions?
Dow drops more than 300 points, weighed down by rising oil prices and Treasury yields

European stocks open higher; UK housebuilders soar South Korea's Kospi leads losses as Asia markets close mixed 		AI Summary: U.S. stocks fell on Monday as rising crude oil prices and multiyear-high Treasury yields reignited inflation concerns. Crude surged after President Donald Trump rejected an Iranian ceasefire proposal, pushing 10-year yields above 5.2%. Although major technology and AI equities pulled market benchmarks lower, Nvidia bucked the broader downturn following a massive $150 billion buyback expansion.

AI Summary: European equity markets opened higher on Monday, buoyed by automotive sector gains and a sharp rally in U.K. housebuilder stocks following newly announced government buyer-support schemes. Conversely, Asian markets stumbled, French far-right politicians gained historic Senate ground, and China's industrial profit growth registered a fourth consecutive month of deceleration despite underlying artificial intelligence hardware tailwinds.		 CNBC U.S. Boosts T&D Overhauls with SPARK Investments

Almonty Secures Tungsten Lifeline For Spanish Mine
Natural Gas News: Pipeline Repair Hopes Knock November Futures Down 4.3% AI Summary: November natural gas futures fell 4.3% to $3.225 as Columbia Gas Transmission located a West Virginia pipeline leak, unwinding Thursday's 9% short squeeze. The rapid repair timeline quickly erased the temporary disruption premium, while broader market fundamentals--marked by a sharp 7.9% drop in annual demand, near-record storage projections, and active gas drilling reaching a new three-year high--continue to pressure prices. FX Empire U.S. Battery-Storage Sector Faces New Hurdles, Despite Growth
China, US agree to tariff cuts on $60 billion of goods including agriculture, household items AI Summary: Under the US-China Board of Trade, Washington and Beijing recommended reciprocal tariff cuts on $60 billion of non-sensitive goods--$30 billion each--following the high-profile Washington summit between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping. While extending their broader trade truce through January 10, both nations outlined further bilateral cooperation on agricultural purchases, coal imports, financial market access, and artificial intelligence safety dialogue. Reuters World Economies Ask: Can Biofuels Replace Fossil Fuel Shortages?
The Next Global Energy Crisis Won't Come From Just One Direction AI Summary: Compounding climate shocks, geopolitical conflicts like the Strait of Hormuz closure, and accelerating peak oil threats are exposing profound vulnerabilities across global energy grids. As clean-energy adoption outpaces existing infrastructure capacities, the World Economic Forum emphasizes that resolving these interconnected systemic crises requires a unified systems-thinking strategy to dismantle fragmented risk management, secure supply chains, and empower rapid utility responses. OilPrice U.S. Heavy Manufacturers Build Out Amid 'Rocketing' Demand
Week 09/21/26 - 09/28/26 The Deal Was Refused. The Bond Market Refuses to Wait. A deal to reopen Hormuz was offered and refused. Oil rose 2%. The 10-year Treasury pushed above 5.2%. Three of seven events on this week's Scorecard read MarCon 4, yet the week settles at 3. Why the relative calm?

Perhaps because the market has learned to live inside the conflict. Tehran says only negotiation can end it; Washington answers with "Operation Economic Outcast," while persistent Chinese trade blunts the sanctions. Europe's foreign policy chief warns of Russian sabotage. Meanwhile, Washington and Beijing agree to reciprocal tariff cuts on $60 billion of goods and extend their truce to January 10.

Have you considered the contradiction? American gas nears record storage, drilling is at a three-year high, while Saudi Arabia hands well contracts to SLB mid-war. Heavy manufacturers report rocketing demand even as the cost of capital climbs.

The Scorecard's quiet message is this: the risk is no longer a single shock. It arrives, as pundits warn, from every direction at once. Which of your assumptions are still built for just one direction?
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

IIR Expert Commentary

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