Australia's Resources and Energy Exports Set for Record $209 Billion Year

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Written by Richard Finlayson, Senior International Editor for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Australia's resources and energy export earnings are forecast to reach a record $209 billion in 2012-13, according to the country's Bureau of Resources and Energy Economics (BREE) in its latest review.

"The continued increase in Australia's minerals and energy export earnings will be underpinned by strong growth in export volumes, particularly for iron ore and LNG following the completion of a number of projects," said Professor Quentin Grafton, BREE's executive director and chief economist.

The growth in earnings in 2012-13 will be underpinned by increases in export values for iron ore, gold, thermal coal, liquefied natural gas (LNG), copper and alumina.

With the exception of aluminum, export volumes for all major minerals and energy commodities are forecast to increase. The largest increases in percentage terms are forecast to be LNG (21%), alumina (15%), metallurgical and thermal coal (both 13%), iron ore (10%) and copper (10%). The LNG increase reflects project startups that will increase the country's capacity from 20 million to 24 million tons annually. The LNG capacity could exceed 80 million tons annually by the end of this decade.

A lower assumed dollar value of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar also will support increases in the value of Australia's resources and energy exports. Economic growth across a number of major economies, including China, is assumed to slow in 2012 year-on-year and then increase in 2013.

Export earnings for energy commodities in 2012-13 would reach $82 billion as a result of increased exports of thermal coal, LNG and uranium. Mineral commodity export earnings would increase 10% over the period to $127 billion as a result of the increased export value of alumina, gold, iron ore and copper.

Despite the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for some European economies, Australia's export volumes for most commodities have remained strong throughout 2011/12, while prices for many commodities have remained at elevated levels relative to historical norms," said Professor Grafton.

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