Canada's Cenovus Upbeat on Production

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Written by Daniel Graeber for IIR Energy Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Canadian producers have been upbeat about their track record during the fourth quarter. The landscape could be changing, however, amid bilateral U.S.-Canadian disputes and low commodity prices.

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A Record Quarter for Cenovus

As Canada continues to deliver crude oil across the border, energy producer Cenovus said its production to December reached an all-time high.

Federal U.S. data show Canadian producers delivered about 3.9 million barrels per day (BBL/d) to the U.S. market over the seven-day period ending February 13. Much of the U.S. refining sector is tailored to run the heavier types of crude oil from Canada and other nations, rather than the light, sweet crude oil found in domestic shale basins.

As such, Canada during the reporting week accounted for 61% of total U.S. imports, even as bilateral relations decline. Amid insults and tariff threats from U.S. President Donald Trump, Canadians are boycotting U.S. goods and travel at the same time as Prime Minister Mark Carney works to cut U.S. trade in half.

With exports under review, Canadian producers are nonetheless overperforming. Suncor Energy last week said it plans to boost its crude oil production in 2026 by about 4% from its previous estimate to between 840,000 to 870,000 barrels per day (BBL/d) this year.

Growth is slated to come largely from the Firebag Production Field & Processing Plant near Fort McMurray, Alberta, which saw curtailments in past years due to fires in the Canadian Rockies.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Plant and Project databases can learn more about Firebag--including capacities, investment values and necessary equipment--from the detailed plant profile.

On Thursday, Cenovus got in the game by announcing its own production growth.

"Our upstream production of 834,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (Boe/d) in 2025 was the highest ever for Cenovus and up 3% from 2024," said Jon McKenzie, the company's president and chief executive officer.

Fourth-quarter levels trounced that yearly average. Upstream production during the three-month period ending December 31 averaged 919,900 BOE/d, about 5% higher than the same period last year.

December levels alone were closer to 919,700 BOE/d, the company said. Those levels, meanwhile, didn't include the impact from last year's acquisition of MEG Energy Corporation.

Cenovus realized roughly 110,000 BBL/d of oil sands production, the bulk of which will be from MEG's Christina Lake production complex near Fort McMurray.

"The combined Christina Lake is the largest and highest-quality thermal asset in the industry, with a reserve life measured in decades," McKenzie said.

Subscribers have access to the detailed profile of the Christina Lake.

By the Numbers

• $682 million in Q4 earnings
• 4% increase in production guidance
• 3% increase year-on-year in output

Refining Margins, Oil Prices Hurt

Fourth-quarter capital investments for Cenovus totaled nearly US$1 billion, leading to a full-year spend of US$3.6 billion. Plans for 2026 are some US$220 million below last year's mid-point, though the company says there's still enough budgeted for expansion programs at Christina North and for drilling at the West White Rose facility off Newfoundland and Labrador.

Under construction since 2018, the development aims to produce 52,500 BBL/d, with a daily peak of 75,000 BBL/d expected. The product will be transported to the company's SeaRose floating production storage and offloading (FPSO) unit. First oil from White Rose is expected by the second quarter.

Subscribers have access to the detailed project report for White Rose.

Cenovus posted fourth-quarter net earnings of US$682 million, down from US $949 million during the previous quarter. The company attributed the decline in part to lower refinery margins and lower crude oil prices.

No reference was made to efforts to diversify trade arteries. Apart from the Trans Mountain oil pipeline to British Columbia, there are few ways for Canadian energy products to get outside North America. The provincial government of Alberta last year through its financial weight behind a new pipeline to carry oil to the nation's western shores.

Key Takeaways

• Canadian producers reporting record highs
• Low commodity prices are taking their toll
• Energy trade continues despite bilateral spats

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR News Intelligence) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).