Suncor Eyes Oil-Production Growth as it Cuts Capital Spending

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Written by Will Ploch, Assistant Editor-in-Chief for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Suncor isn't letting a tough atmosphere for crude oil keep it from expanding production. The oil sands operator has several projects in the works that will boost upstream and sustain downstream output.

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Spending Down, but Production Up

Canadian oil titan Suncor Energy plans to boost its crude production in 2026, despite a projected reduction in capital expenditures. Executives insist the company can strike this balance amid a weak outlook for oil prices, with several expansion projects preparing to kick off this year in Canada's most prosperous regions. Industrial Info is tracking US$16.4 billion worth of active and proposed projects from Suncor, nearly all of which is attributed to projects in Alberta's Athabasca oil sands.

Suncor expects upstream production to average 840,000 to 870,000 barrels per day (BBL/d) this year, up from its estimate of 810,000 to 840,000 BBL/d for full-year 2025. Among its Athabasca facilities set for growth is the Firebag Production Field and Processing Plant near Fort McMurray, Alberta, which is slated to see its output increase from 206,000 to 269,000 BBL/d via a Stage 5 expansion set to kick off later this year.

The company is weighing its options for a proposed Stage 6 expansion, which, if approved, could increase production further from 269,000 to 332,000 BBL/d. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Plant and Project databases can learn more about Firebag--including capacities, investment values and necessary equipment--from a plant profile and detailed reports on the Stage 5 and Stage 6 projects.

Suncor executives expect capital expenditures for 2026 to range between C$5.6 billion and C$5.8 billion (US$4.1 billion and US$4.24 billion), down from its 2025 forecast of C$6.1 billion to C$6.3 billion (US$4.46 billion and US$4.6 billion).

"If you look at the model of the company that we've built here, a lot of it is around stability and predictability," said Troy Little, the chief financial officer for Suncor, in a quarterly earnings-related conference call. He noted the company's operating expenditures have "roughly remained in the same range" for the past three years, "even though we've significantly increased both our production and our refining utilization. I think you're going to see that in capital expenditures, and I think we've demonstrated that so far, and it's certainly our plans for the long term."

By the Numbers

• US$16.4 billion: Total investment value of Suncor projects tracked by Industrial Info
• 332,000 BBL/d: Suncor's higher-end estimated production following two proposed expansions at Firebag complex in Alberta
• US$4.1 billion to US$4.24 billion: Suncor's projected capital expenditures for full-year 2026

Refining on a Roll

Suncor's refining business also proved resilient in 2025. The company reported record throughput of 480,000 BBL/d, a 3.2% increase from 2024, with a record refinery utilization of 103%. Refined product sales also hit a record of 623,000 BBL/d, a 3.8% increase from 2024.

Executives expect refinery throughput volumes in 2026 to come in between 460,000 and 475,000 BBL/d, with utilization between 99% and 102%. Among the facilities slated for upgrades is Plant 1 at the Denver Refinery in Commerce City, Colorado, where a flare reroute project is underway to improve safety and emissions. The same refinery is expected to begin construction in the coming months on a selective catalytic reduction (SCR) unit to reduce nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions from a steam methane-reforming (SMR) hydrogen unit.

Subscribers can learn more about the Denver Refinery projects from a plant profile and detailed reports on the flaring and SCR projects.

"We run our refineries full, we have a signal to sell full, and then over time, we improve our yields and our sales channel mix," said Dave Oldreive, the executive vice president of Downstream for Suncor, in the earnings call. "Over the last year, we had record crude throughput, but we also had record gasoline production, record diesel production, record jet fuel production."

Also in Colorado, Suncor is preparing to expand its Rocky Mountain Pipeline by about 70 miles, from Platteville to Fort Lupton, following the recent completion of a 62-mile segment from Cheyenne, Wyoming, to Fort Collins, Colorado. Subscribers can read detailed project reports on the Platteville-Fort Lupton and Cheyenne-Fort Collins portions.

Suncor's fourth-quarter 2025 net earnings were reported to be C$1.48 billion (US$1.08 billion), compared with C$818 million (US$598 million) in fourth-quarter 2024.

Subscribers to Industrial Info's GMI Project Database can click here for a full list of detailed reports for active and proposed projects from Suncor.

Subscribers can click here for a full list of detailed reports for projects mentioned in this article, and click here for a full list of related plant profiles.

Key Takeaways

• Suncor's Firebag complex is looking at two major expansions in the coming years that would boost output significantly.
• The company expects a strong performance from its refining segment this year, following record results in 2025.
• A significant pipeline capacity expansion is underway in the U.S.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR News Intelligence) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 trillion (USD).