EU May be Forced to Import 98% of Gas by 2050

Written by Martin Lynch, European News Editor for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

Summary

The EU is looking at increased gas imports in the coming decades with a worst-case scenario envisaging imports rising to 98%.

Worst-Case Scenario

Europe could see its dependence on gas imports rise to 98% by 2050 if current investment levels in gas exploration and drilling fall off in the coming decades. This is the worst-case scenario of three forecast models presented by consultancy Wood Mackenzie in its report What could domestic gas do for EU energy security? Europe already relies on gas imports for more than 85% of its needs, with most of that coming from Norway, followed by the U.S., North Africa and Russia. The outlook is stark considering that European gas prices have hit record highs this summer thanks to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has contributed to gas storage levels hitting record lows as Europe heads into winter. For additional information, see September 07, 2026, article - Europe's Gas Storage Plummets to 15-year Low. According to Industrial Info Resources data, there are more than 620 gas-related projects ongoing in Europe worth almost US$43 billion in investment. Drilling and grassroot projects account for US$29 billion of the total, with US$8 billion allocated to closures.

"Europe's options on gas are narrowing," WoodMac noted. "Without new field investment, the EU will import over 98% of its gas by 2050. The gap between doing nothing and maximising domestic production potential is roughly three years of current EU gas demand. The policy and investment decisions made in the next five years will determine which side of that gap the bloc lands on."

The Other Scenarios

The low case scenario mentioned above has the starkest outcome. The mid-case scenario, which reflects current policy and investment levels, would see domestic production hold near 40 billion cubic meters (Bcm) until 2038, adding 330 Bcm, or 70% more than the low case. It would require replacing more than half the current producing base. Even then, domestic gas would never cover more than 17% of demand across that period - up just 2% on current levels. 

During this time, Europe's exposure to the volatile global market would remain unchanged. The most optimistic scenario - the high case - is the only one that would change the bloc's position, but it would require fiscal terms stabilised, permitting accelerated and corporate constraints resolved. In this case, production reaches 77 Bcm by 2042, meeting 38% of total demand. Cumulative output reaches 1,400 Bcm, displacing the equivalent of 615 liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes a year against the low case. The key to growth is exploration. Of the 680 Bcm separating the low and high cases, exploration accounts for 70%. The Black Sea and East Mediterranean hold 70% of that "yet-to-find volume," WoodMac noted. Greece alone accounts for a third, with firms Energean and ExxonMobil preparing to drill the country's first deepwater exploration well in 2027.

LNG and Ditching Russian Gas

WoodMac stated: "Europe's import dependency runs deep. The EU imports 85% of the gas it consumes today. That share stays broadly flat through the early 2030s. However, with Norwegian supply expected to come off plateau in the 2030s, North African volumes facing domestic demand pressure and Russian pipeline gas being phased out, LNG is filling the gap. Its share of EU supply could rise from around 40% today to 63% by 2050. Of that, 77% is expected to come from the United States." LNG has become vital for Europe's gas market ever since it sanctioned Russian oil and gas imports following its invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Russia's share of EU imports of pipeline gas dropped from around 40% in 2021 to around 6% in 2025, according to stats from the Council of Europe. For pipeline gas and LNG combined, Russia accounted for around 12% of total EU gas imports in 2025. That is expected to drop significantly going forward since the Council adopted a regulation to prohibit both LNG and pipeline gas imports from Russia starting from March 18, 2026, with transition periods for existing contracts. By the end of 2027, all Russian gas imports will be prohibited. For additional information, see February 10, 2026, article - EU Approves Total Ban on Russian Gas.

Key Takeaways

• Europe could see its dependence on gas imports rise to 98% by 2050.
• Europe currently relies on imports for 85% of its gas demand.
• Industrial Info Resources data is tracking more than 620 gas-related projects ongoing in Europe worth almost US$43 billion in investment. 

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).