IEA: Global Critical Minerals Risks Became Realities in 2025

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Written by John Egan for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

The global economy experienced its first taste of critical minerals supply chain disruptions last year, the result of rising demand, increasing prices, supply chain concentrations and wider use of trade restrictions on various minerals that are used in energy, the military, transportation and consumer electronics, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.

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Critical Minerals Supply Chains: From Risk to Reality

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has for years warned about a fragile supply chain for a variety of critical minerals, including rare earth minerals, but in 2025 those risks became real, and further potential shocks are evident on the horizon, the agency said in its annual "Global Critical Minerals Outlook," report, released July 16.

According to Industrial Info Resources data, there are nearly 9,000 active capital critical minerals-related projects globally, with a total investment value of US$1.32 trillion.

In 2025, the IEA report said, "the economic risks of highly concentrated supply chains materialized at scale. In April 2025, the Chinese government introduced major export controls on seven heavy rare earth elements, with significant impacts across downstream industries, forcing some automakers to reduce utilization rates or temporarily halt operations. In October 2025, they were further expanded, extending proposed restrictions to internationally made products containing rare earths sourced from China or produced using Chinese technologies."

Although China suspended these expanded measured for one year, until this coming November, the agency said the vulnerabilities remain.

China has not been the only country to enact export controls on critical minerals. Other restrictions include a cobalt export quota by the Democratic Republic of Congo and trade restrictions set by Zimbabwe for lithium and Mozambique for graphite.

"The recent proliferation of export controls has transformed concerns around high supply concentration from a theoretical vulnerability into an immediate economic security challenge," the report said.

The IEA report grouped the minerals it assessed into these categories:

• Battery minerals, including lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, high-purity manganese and purified phosphoric acid.
• Rare earth elements, mainly four magnet-related elements: neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium and terbium.
• Base metals, including aluminum, copper, lead, tin and zinc.
• Alloy metals, such as chromium, molybdenum and vanadium.
• Strategic minor minerals, which include antimony, bismuth, gallium, germanium, tantalum, tellurium, titanium and tungsten.

"Our latest analysis shows that vast amounts of economic value depend on relatively small volumes of critical minerals, whose supply chains remain highly concentrated and are therefore vulnerable," IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement accompanying the report. "Yet there are encouraging signs of progress--including in rare earth supply chains--where we see targeted policies and investment support starting to make a difference."

Joseph Govreau, VP Metals & Minerals Research for Industrial Info Resources, observed, "Miners and processors of critical minerals mentioned in the IEA report are taking notice, and we've seen a significant increase in project activity for mining and processing projects during this time period."

Strong Demand, Export Controls Push Up Prices

Strong demand growth for critical minerals, coupled with highly concentrated mining and processing of those minerals as well as some export controls, have pushed up the prices for a variety of minerals.

In 2024 and 2025, global demand grew meaningfully for key minerals used in energy, particularly lithium, graphite and cobalt. Other energy-related minerals, such as rare earths, nickel and copper, notched slower demand growth, the IEA said.

This demand growth, coupled with highly concentrated mining and processing of those minerals and, in some cases, export controls, drove prices upward for a variety of minerals between January 2025 and April 2026, the report said. Prices for base metals such as aluminum, copper and tin rose by an average of about 33% over that period, with copper prices reaching record highs.

Battery mineral prices also rose sharply following a downturn in 2023 and 2024, with lithium prices more than doubling and cobalt prices shooting up by around 130%.

A third category of minerals, used in magnets, including neodymium and praseodymium, also saw sharp price escalations over that time.

Price gains since January 2025 were particularly pronounced for what the agency termed "strategic minor minerals," such as tungsten and tantalum. Tungsten prices shot up 620% between January 2025 and April 2026 while tantalum prices rose nearly 200%. For more on tungsten, see June 1, 2026, article - China Restrictions Lead to Tungsten Supply Crunch.

Prices for indium and bismuth, two other strategic minor minerals, each rose approximately 100% over that 16-month period.

By the Numbers

• 620%: Average price increase for tungsten between January 2025 and April 2026
• 190%: Average price increase for tantalum over that same period
• 130%: Average price increase for cobalt over that same 16-month period
• 110%: Increase in price for neodymium between January 2025 and April 2026

Price Gains Don't Translate into Higher Prices -- Yet

While price increases for some critical minerals have been eye-popping, the good news is that those minerals are used in very small amounts, so their price escalations should not materially drive up the costs of goods made with them. Moreover, the report said that outlays to strengthen supply chains and expand supply and processing capacity should not cause additional big gains in the price of finished goods made with those materials.

For example, the report said, critical minerals account for around one-quarter of battery cell costs but only about 3% of the price of an average electric vehicle, while rare earths represent around 40% of permanent magnet costs, but less than 1% of a vehicle's value.

"While diversified supply can come at a higher cost, this can be viewed as a mineral security premium in a time of geopolitical uncertainty--a form of economic insurance against major supply risks," IEA's Birol said.

Greater Action Needed to Diversify Supply Chains

Outright cutoffs of critical minerals exports, as opposed to price increases, could create global shockwaves in various industries, the IEA said. It recognized that nations are increasing efforts and investments to diversify the supply of critical minerals and build more resilient supply chains. For more on that, see: February 10, 2026, article - Trump Announces $12 Billion Plan to Stockpile Critical Minerals; April 9, 2026, article - IEA Highlights Strengthening Rare Earth Supply Chains; and July 14, 2026, article - U.S. Army Announces Base Lease Agreements with Critical Minerals Miners.

In advanced economies, governments pledged investments totaling about US$65 billion in 2025, four times the level of investment in 2023, the IEA report said. But it noted there remains a big gap between commitments and actual outlays. Moreover, it said commitments remain disproportionately concentrated in mining, with refining being starved for investment.

Beyond money and policies, the IEA report encouraged nations to think holistically about what is needed to establish truly resilient critical minerals supply chains. Resolution of existing technology and equipment bottlenecks, and building a skilled workforce, also are necessary.

Key Takeaways

• Global trends, such as strong demand growth, rising prices and continued high concentrations of mining and processing, coupled with some export controls, turned potential supply chain risks into realities for some critical minerals in 2025, according to a report from the International Energy Agency.
• Governments in advanced economies have quadrupled their pledges to invest in critical minerals supply chains, but actual outlays trail commitments.
• Investments to diversify critical minerals supply chains remain too concentrated in mining and not in downstream activities such as processing.

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