IIR's February 12 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

---

Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Hamas warns Israeli invasion of Rafah will 'torpedo' truce talks		Hamas has warned Israel that a ground offensive in Rafah would imperil negotiations on a truce and the exchange of captives and prisoners, as United States President Joe Biden said an assault should not go ahead without a "credible" plan to protect civilians in the city. Aid groups and foreign governments, including Israel's key ally the US, have voiced deep concern over Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's pledge to extend ground military operations into the far-southern Gaza city.	Aljazeera	Petrobras, Record U.S. Road Travel: Your Daily Energy News
Israel Says It Rescued 2 Hostages From Rafah		The statement was issued around the same time that Israel said it had conducted a "wave" of attacks on Rafah, a crowded city at the border with Egypt where more than a million Palestinian refugees are anxiously expecting an Israeli ground invasion. Israel has been discussing plans to send troops into Rafah, even as aid groups, the United Nations and the United States have warned that the people sheltering there have nowhere to go. Egypt has so far refused to take in Palestinian refugees.	The New York Times	Dangote's Lekki Refinery Runs Dry, Plans to Import U.S. Crude
Oil Prices Forecast: Middle East Tensions Ease with 200-Day MA Setting Tone		After Israel's military operations in Gaza ended, crude oil prices retreated, indicating a potential short-term shift in market sentiment. Middle East Tensions and Market Reaction The early trading week saw a decrease in crude oil prices following Israel's completion of its Gaza strikes. This development slightly eased Middle East supply concerns, which had significantly driven up prices the previous week. However, the closure of major Asian financial markets for holidays resulted in subdued trading activity. Short-term Outlook: Bullish Despite these considerations, the short-term forecast for crude oil remains bullish. Geopolitical risks, especially in the Middle East, and supply concerns continue to exert upward pressure on prices. The market is poised to respond to the U.S. CPI data, with traders closely monitoring the balance between inflationary trends, dollar strength, and global demand trends.	FXEmpire	Big Oil's Profits Down Sharply Compared to Historic 2022
Diamondback in $26 billion deal to buy Endeavor Energy in growing Permian push		Shale producer Diamondback Energy said on Monday it would buy the largest privately held oil and gas producer in the Permian Basin, Endeavor Energy Partners, in a cash-and-stock deal valued at about $26 billion, including debt. The combined company would be the third largest oil and gas producer in the region behind Exxon and Chevron with both having announced recent deals. "Diamondback has proven itself to be a premier low-cost operator in the Permian Basin over the last 12 years, and this combination allows us to bring this cost structure to a larger asset and allocate capital to a stronger pro forma inventory position," CEO Travis Stice said in a statement.	Reuters	ConocoPhillips Aims for $11 Billion-to-$11.5 Billion Capex in 2024
Natural Gas Prices Forecast: Short-Sellers Continue to Tighten Grip		As the week starts, natural gas futures show a marked decline, with analysts predicting a continued bearish trend. Increased Production and Mild Winter Lower Demand Biden's Policy Creates Uncertainty in Natural Gas Sector Weather and Global Politics Impact U.S. LNG Exports Natural gas futures are showing a pronounced downward trend at the beginning of this week, with current market trends pointing towards a continued bearish outlook. Despite some technical analysts suggesting the market might be oversold, the fundamentals tell a different story, with high production levels and mild winter demand applying downward pressure on prices.	FXEmpire	India Turns to Offshore Renewables for Net-Zero Future
U.K.'s JET nuclear fusion reactor sets new world energy output record		In a major scientific achievement, European researchers at the Joint European Torus (JET) facility have set a new world energy record of 69 megajoules released in sustained and controlled fusion energy. This breakthrough is a result of their experimental campaign to verify operating scenarios for future fusion machines under conditions as close as possible to those in ITER and future fusion power plants. The EUROfusion consortium of fusion laboratories around Europe embarked on an ambitious experimental campaign at the JET facility of the U.K. Atomic Energy Authority (UKAEA) in Culham, U.K., in September 2023. Their aim is to test out operating scenarios extrapolated from small and medium-sized European devices to pave the way for the international ITER project and the fusion power plants to follow. JET is unique amongst present-day tokamak machines, which trap a donut-shaped cloud of hot, ionized fuel or plasma in a cage of magnetic fields, as it can work with the deuterium-tritium fuel that will form the basis of future fusion machines like ITER and the demonstration power plant DEMO.	Inceptive Mind	Air Products Pushes for Global Blue, Green Hydrogen Growth
Week 02/05/24 - 02/12/24		Fireworks. Both in the Middle East--as Israel launched an attack on Rafah--which likely ended any chance of a cease fire and a truce in the near future; as well as in the Far East in China as the Lunar New Year--the Year of the Dragon--is rung in and celebrated. Mr. Oil market is factoring in more geopolitical risk premium, while keeping a side eye on the U.S. CPI report released this week and the Fed response--as fireworks in the form of volatility and inflation have not yet fizzled out in global economies. This Year of the Dragon symbolizes good luck, strength, intelligence and good fortune--which the world requires as it seeks to recover from wars, economic strife and wicked weather.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).