IIR's June 3 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Egypt urges Israel and Hamas to accept cease-fire proposal		Egypt's foreign minister urged Israel and Hamas on Monday to accept a cease-fire plan presented by President Biden in a surprise speech before the weekend, days after Hamas said it had received the proposal "positively" in a rare sign of diplomatic progress amid the grinding conflict. The proposal, however, also raised the ire of members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's far-right coalition, who threatened to bring down the government if the deal is accepted. Opposition leader Yair Lapid, however, has said that he would provide backing to Netanyahu's government to keep it from collapsing if it accepts the deal.	Washington Post	Vistra Energy, U.S. Oil Production: Your Daily Energy News
Zelensky says China's 'support to Russia' will extend war in Ukraine during surprise appearance in Asia		China's support to Russia will extend the war in Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelensky said Sunday, as he called on countries across the Asia-Pacific to join an upcoming peace summit he accused Russia of trying to thwart. The U.S. has also alleged that China's export of dual-use goods to Russia is powering the warring country's defense industrial base and warned Beijing of consequences for such support - a claim Beijing has refuted, saying it has not provided weapons to either side and maintains tight export controls on dual use goods.	CNN	ConocoPhillips' Bid for Marathon Oil is Latest Bold O&G Deal
Oil steady as investors weigh up extended OPEC+ supply cuts		Oil prices were little changed on Monday as investors digested the complex deal brokered by producer group OPEC+ to extend various layers of output cuts, much of them into 2025. The group agreed on Sunday to extend much of its cuts well into 2025 to support the market in the face of softer than expected demand growth, protracted high interest rates in key Western economies, worries over slow demand growth in top oil importer China and rising non-OPEC production. The deal includes extending 3.66 million bpd of cuts that were due to expire at the end of 2024 until the end of 2025.	Reuters	AAA: Gas Prices Drop Heavily, But Beware During Hurricane Season
Dollar stands tall as traders mull Fed outlook; focus on ECB		The dollar held steady on Monday, as investors warmed to the idea that U.S. inflation may have slowed enough for the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2024, while the euro was calm ahead of an expected cut from the European Central Bank this week. Among emerging market currencies, the Indian rupee and Mexican peso strengthened following exit poll results from general elections in both countries. "This is a mega week for financial markets," Kathleen Brooks, research director at trading platform XTB, said, citing the ECB rate decision and Mexican election as factors. The dollar posted its first monthly decline of the year in May, weighed down by shifting expectations on when the U.S. central bank will cut rates and by how much, with markets pricing in 37 basis points of cuts this year from the Fed.	CNBC	Let's Make Another Deal: Energy Transfer Looks to Acquire WTG Midstream for $3.25 Billion
Natural Gas News: Can High Summer Demand Offset Oversupply Concerns?		Last week, U.S. natural gas prices fell sharply, impacted by increased production, fluctuating demand forecasts, and substantial inventory levels. At times, the selling pressure was relentless as traders continued to assess the potential impacts of shifts in weather and production. Natural gas production in the Lower 48 states averaged 97.7 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) in May, slightly down from April's 98.2 bcfd. Despite the monthly decline, daily output increased by 1.5 bcfd since early May. Weather patterns played a critical role in shaping demand expectations. NatGasWeather predicted very warm to hot conditions in the southern U.S. and California, with temperatures ranging from the mid-80s to 100s in desert areas. However, the northern U.S. experienced milder temperatures, which tempered overall demand. Given the current oversupply and forecasts for lower demand, the short-term outlook for U.S. natural gas prices remains bearish.	FX Empire	Japan's Largest LNG Importer Offloads Stake in Freeport Terminal
Extreme Weather and Red Sea Crisis Trigger Commodities Rally		After three years of extreme volatility, many experts predicted that commodities prices would broadly stabilize in 2024. However, adverse weather conditions, escalating geopolitical tensions and soaring shipping costs are turning those predictions on their heads. Wild weather driven by climate change is elevating the cost of energy, food and fuel; increasing the frequency of natural disasters and raising insurance costs. According to Munich Re, last year, extreme weather and earthquakes inflicted global losses of $250 billion, a new norm for insurers.	OilPrice	Dryad Global: Red Sea Attacks Down, But at a Cost
How the World Can Scale Energy Transition Investment		The shift to clean energy presents an unprecedented investment challenge. Achieving climate neutrality in the global energy sector requires investments in various clean solutions such as renewable electricity, green hydrogen production, energy storage, bioenergy, electrification of energy uses, efficiency improvements and carbon capture and storage. These risk factors directly translate to a higher cost of capital for green projects, ultimately making the energy transition more expensive. According to Deloitte's first report on the topic, Financing the Green Energy Transition: A US$50 trillion catch, the energy transition can cost as much as $200 trillion cumulatively through 2050.	Energy Intelligence	Peru to Play Key Role in Supply of Renewable Energy Raw Materials
Week 05/27/24 - 06/03/24		Hold the line - the proverbial "red line" by the U.S. Administration as Israel intensifies actions in Rafah; wherein the U.S. is now pressuring parties to accept a cease fire deal. Hold the line in Ukraine as Russian forces advance on Kharkiv and push West; meanwhile 'fire across the line' into Russia as Western Nations have relaxed their restrictions on their armaments being used on targets inside Russia herself. Hold the line as Ukraine hosts peace summits in Asia to try and mitigate Chinese influence while seeking a path forward to a world-enforced resolution to push Russia back across the line in Eastern Ukraine. OPEC+ not only holds the line in regard to production cuts but extends some of them into 2025 amid concern with world economic recovery in these inflationary times; though the dollar is seemingly standing tall. Hold the line in regard to clean tech investments to achieve climate neutrality as the Northern Hemisphere prepares for a Summer of Xtremes redux as Cyclones and Typhoons already have battered India, Philippines, Japan and China while North America's Hurricane season gets underway and extreme heat lies in store.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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