IIR's May 1 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Oil set for sixth straight monthly loss		Oil prices have stabilized at about $78 per barrel for ICE Brent and $74 per barrel for WTI, after Wednesday's double whammy of bad macroeconomic data. The decline in U.S. capital goods spending confirmed fears that economic growth is slowing in the U.S., while refinery margins continued their descent this week as downstream players are finding it ever harder to stay profitable. As such, oil is set for its sixth straight monthly loss, despite the OPEC+ production cuts.	OilPrice	U.S. Oil Production, Chevron: Your Daily Energy News
OPEC production cuts kick in this week, adding to uncertainty over crude prices		Crude oil prices this week will be certain to pivot on interest rate adjustments from the U.S. and European central banks, though analysts said to be mindful of the start of OPEC+ production cuts and possible demand weakness. Major crude oil indices are trading at levels that preceded the early April announcement from OPEC+ Jitters over a tight market have given way to concerns about the health of the global economy, putting something of a ceiling over the price of crude. The U.S. economy grew by a sluggish 1.1 percent over the first three months of the year, far below the 2.6 percent expansion for the fourth quarter and well below a recent 2.5 percent growth rate forecast from the Atlanta Fed.	Houston Chronicle	Russia Warns Europe: Getting Winter Gas will be 'Very Difficult'
First Republic Bank is seized, sold to JPMorgan in second-largest U.S. bank failure		Regulators seized First Republic Bank and struck a deal to sell the bulk of its operations to JPMorgan Chase & Co., heading off a chaotic collapse that threatened to reignite the recent banking crisis. JPMorgan said it will assume all of First Republic's $92 billion in deposits--insured and uninsured. It is also buying most of the bank's assets, including about $173 billion in loans and $30 billion in securities. As part of the agreement, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corportion (FDIC) will share losses with JPMorgan on First Republic's loans.	WSJ	Gold Miner Newmont's Proposed Newcrest Acquisition Outlined
IEA should be 'very careful' about undermining key oil investments, OPEC chief says		Birol, in an interview with Bloomberg on Wednesday, said OPEC should be careful about pushing oil prices up as that would translate into a weaker global economy. On Thursday, Al Ghais said blaming oil for inflation was "erroneous and technically incorrect," and that the IEA's repeated calls to stop investing in oil is what would lead to market volatility. "If anything will lead to future volatility, it is the IEA's repeated calls to stop investing in oil, knowing that all data-driven outlooks envisage the need for more of this precious commodity to fuel global economic growth and prosperity in the decades to come, especially in the developing world."	Reuters	IEA Sees Cleaner Energy & Carbon Capture Growth Among Keys to 1.5˚ C Climate Scenario
Oil price forecast: banking woes and China's manufacturing slump weigh on oil prices		On Monday, crude oil prices dropped because traders were worried about how a potential increase in U.S. interest rates might affect the economy, and because of weaker manufacturing data from China. Even though OPEC+ was cutting back on oil supply starting this month, it wasn't enough to counterbalance the negative factors. ...The U.S. Federal Reserve is expected to announce a 25 basis point increase in interest rates during their meeting on May 2-3. ...Meanwhile, the main focus of attention was on disappointing economic data from China. The country's manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped from 51.9 in March to 49.2 in April, which means that the sector has contracted.	FX Empire	Natural Gas Prices Yo-Yo Into May
Five key charts to watch in global commodity markets this week		Crops: Favorable dry weather in key parts of the U.S. crop belt is allowing farmers to jumpstart soybean plantings. Gasoline: The amount of ethanol blended into U.S. gasoline could see a modest increase this year, as a result of the Biden administration's decision last week to exempt the E15 fuel blend from seasonal volatility limits. Oil: One of the world's largest oil gatherings kicks off in Houston starting Monday at the Offshore Technology Conference. The four-day event will likely focus on some of the most pressing issues facing the offshore energy sector. Mining M&A: Teck Resources is going back to the drawing board on plans to separate its metals and coal businesses, after failing to convince shareholders of an earlier, more complicated plan, while it fended off a takeover attempt from Glencore plc. Solar Power: The move by California, the largest U.S. rooftop-solar market, to cut benefits for home solar buyers is expected to slow installations, raising questions about the financial impact to the nation's residential solar companies.	Yahoo.Finance	ADM Sows Spending in Soybean, Ethanol Projects as Ag Market Booms
Week 04/24/23 - 05/01/23		Woe is jittery me.. Yet another bank failure, Fed set to raise rates(..with other Central Banks likely to follow their lead..), and IEA is tussling with OPEC on hydrocarbon investment.. Oh me, oh my could this May Day portent be worse one wonders as even China manufacturing data disappoints to the downside.. Guess those alarm bells which began to ring last week to signal a commodity price retreat are ringing much louder now.. For where is there some respite in these markets? - as all eyes turn to key charts & ears tune into economic announcements from Central Banks.. as it seems the world is poised to tip into an economic recession..
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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