Report Points to Brazil's Growth in Hydrocarbon Production

Written by Amir Richani for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land Texas)

---

Summary

A projection for Brazil's hydrocarbon production forecasts output of 4.9 million BBL/d of oil and 299 million m3/d of natural gas by 2035. Pre-salt volumes are expected to continue playing a key part in the growth, accounting for close to 80% of the flows.

---

The Brazilian Ministry of Mines and the Energy Research Company (EPE) published a report on Brazil's 10-year energy expansion plan to 2035. The plan outlines oil production of 4.9 million barrels per day (BBL/d) by 2035, about 44% more than 2024's volume. Production will peak at 5.1 million BBL/d in 2032.

Central to this strategy is the expansion of the Buzios oil field, which is expected to reach peak oil production of 1.7 million BBL/d by 2030 and then decline to 1.1 million BBL/d by 2035 through the deployment of six new offshore production units.

Compared to the previous forecast, EPE has increased its projected oil production from undiscovered reserves (areas where oil has not yet been found but are under exploration). This adjustment reflects prospects in the Foz do Amazonas region, the controversial area near the mouth of the Amazon River, where Petrobras (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil) recently was allowed to search for oil.

In addition to oil, natural gas volumes are expected to reach 299 million cubic meters per day (m3/d) by 2035, peaking in 2033 at 309 million m3/d. By 2035, natural gas production is forecast to increase by 95% compared to 2024 volumes.

Overall, pre-salt production will remain the main driver of Brazil's hydrocarbon expansion, accounting for roughly 76% of oil and 80% of natural gas gross output by 2035.

Energy Minister Alexandre Silveira said, "The strength of the pre-salt reserves, combined with the diversification of projects and the strengthening of independent producers, demonstrates that the country is moving forward with solid planning and a vision for the future. This is an important milestone for consolidating our global energy relevance, promoting sustainable economic development, and technological innovation."

Petrobras at the Forefront

Similar to the national forecast, Petrobras recently announced its strategic plan for 2026-2030 in which it projects a total oil and gas production (including non-commercial natural gas) of 3.3 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (BOE/d) by 2030, peaking in 2028 and 2029 at 3.4 million BOE/d.

In line with this, the company plans to deploy eight production units by 2030 and is studying the development of another nine in Brazil after the end of the decade.

Petrobras remains Brazil's largest hydrocarbon producer, accounting for 62% of national production in October. This trend is expected to continue as the current government of Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva has placed the state company and energy production at the heart of its agenda.

Key Takeaways

• Brazil could reach oil production of 4.9 million BBL/d in 2035.
• Natural gas production would reach 299 million m3/d in 2035.
• Pre-salt production would account for 76% of the oil and 80% of the gas produced.

---

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).