Tropical Cyclone Gezani Strikes Madagascar, Impacting Port and Mining Operations

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst, for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Tropical Cyclone Gezani rapidly intensified before striking Madagascar as a Category 3 storm, causing fatalities, widespread damage, and major disruptions to mining exports and port operations. After weakening inland, it re-intensified over the Mozambique Channel and threatens southern Mozambique with strong winds, flooding, and surge.

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Tropical Cyclone Gezani to Date

Tropical Cyclone Gezani (21S) was first identified as a tropical disturbance on February 4, 2026, over the Southwest Indian Ocean. This system initially tracked slowly and erratically, while favorable conditions over the open ocean allowed the system to strengthen rapidly over subsequent days. By February 8, Gezani had become a named storm, and shortly afterward entered a period of rapid intensification that turned it into a powerful tropical cyclone.

On February 10, Gezani made landfall near the eastern port city of Toamasina, Madagascar as an intense tropical cyclone, a Category 3 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Maximum sustained winds were approximately 185--200 km/h (115--125 mph) as it impacted the coastal regions.

After landfall, the cyclone weakened as it moved across the island, dropping to tropical storm strength as it tracked westward. Once over the Mozambique Channel, the system encountered favorable conditions, beginning to re-intensify. By today (February 12), Gezani regained organization. This system has recently developed an eye as winds increased to cyclone strength with estimated winds of 160 km/h (95 mph). Forecast models indicate that Gezani is expected to continue its intensification cycle over the next few days as it moves toward southeastern Africa.

Impacts and Ongoing Recovery across Madagascar

The effects of Cyclone Gezani on Madagascar have been severe and wide-ranging since landfall. With Category 3 sustained winds at landfall, eastern coastal regions experienced intense wind damage, heavy flooding, and destructive storm surge.

Industrial Info's Disaster Impact Tracker (DIT) shows 11 facilities in Madagascar and Mozambique in the path of the storm, including the Toamasina Marine Port, two crude oil storage terminals, four power stations and four Metals & Minerals facilities (two graphite mines, one graphite processing plant and one nickel-cobalt refinery).

Click on the image at right for a DIT map showing the path of the storm.

In Toamasina, Madagascar's second-largest city and a central hub for domestic shipping and exports, widespread structural damage occurred. Businesses were destroyed, electrical and communications infrastructure collapsed, and flooding spread across low-lying areas. Satellite and aerial images released by news organizations and aid agencies show entire neighborhoods with roofs missing and streets inundated following the cyclone's passage.

Human toll estimates have been rising as assessments continue. Official reports from disaster authorities and news agencies place the confirmed death toll at least 38 people, with almost 400 injuries and several others remain missing. Thousands of households were damaged or destroyed, leaving many families without shelter or basic services.

Critically to Madagascar's industrial sector, the Port of Toamasina and surrounding freight infrastructure were severely disrupted, slowing container and bulk cargo operations. Flooding, landslides, and debris have blocked key inland highways and transport routes linking the port to central production zones.

For the country's mining sector--a major exporter of nickel, cobalt, ilmenite (titanium ore), graphite, and chromite--these disruptions create immediate export bottlenecks and inbound supply delays. Bulk mineral shipments depend heavily on road, rail, and port continuity, and even short-term interruptions can delay global deliveries and tighten supply chains tied to battery metals and industrial feedstocks.

Operational impacts extend beyond shipping. Open-pit mines will face challenges from saturated soils, flooded haul roads, and slope-stability risks following prolonged rainfall. Power and communications outages further complicate logistics and workforce coordination. Ambatovy nickel/cobalt mining paused operations while it inspects a 220-km slurry pipeline connecting to Toamasina's port. "We are currently conducting detailed inspections and technical assessments to evaluate the impact of the cyclone on our assets and operations, [with] safety verifications ongoing across our facilities," Ambatovy told Fastmarkets.

In response, national and international humanitarian agencies have mobilized emergencies. The United Nations released about $3 million funding for relief operations, pre-positioning food and emergency supplies. Full recovery of impacted infrastructure is expected to take weeks to months, depending on resource availability.

5-Day Outlook

Gezani is forecast to continue west-southwest across the Mozambique Channel over the next two days. The cyclone is expected to reorganize and intensify over the warm waters of the channel. It is expected to regain its intense tropical cyclone status with estimated maximum sustained winds near 165 km/h (105 mph).

During this time, a dangerously close approach or an impactful landfall is forecast for the southern coast of Mozambique. On Saturday, February 14, the cyclone with pass within 50 km (35 miles) of the port city of Maxixe. Intense winds, heavy rainfall, and notable storm surge are likely along the shore even with a near-miss. Home to over 100,000 residents, this city is a regional hub for manufacturing, power generation, and transport.

Mozambican meteorological authorities have issued warnings and are preparing response measures, including advising evacuations in vulnerable coastal districts and safeguarding infrastructure. These preparations are especially important given recent flooding events in the region, which have already strained local resilience.

By late Saturday, Gezani is expected turn south, then southeast around the periphery of the South Indian Ocean steering ridge. It is expected to encounter cooler waters and unfavorable winds aloft, yielding its weakening. The long-range outlook shows the cyclone potentially stalling south of Madagascar by Monday, February 16.

Key Takeaways

• Formed February 4; rapidly intensified and made Category 3 landfall near Toamasina, Madagascar on February 10.
• At least 38 deaths, hundreds injured, and widespread infrastructure damage reported.
• Port disruptions, landslides, and road blockages halted mining exports and delayed supply chains.
• Ambatovy nickel/cobalt operations paused to inspect critical slurry pipeline.
• Forecast to pass near Maxixe, Mozambique, bringing wind, flooding, and surge risks.

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About IIR News Intelligence
IIR News Intelligence is a trusted source of news for the industrial process and energy markets, powered by Industrial Info Resources' Global Market Intelligence (GMI).

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).