U.S. Grid Operators Brace for Heat and Record Power Demand

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Written by Aaron Studwell, Ph.D., Energy Meteorologist & Analyst (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Three major electric grid operators across the eastern United States are preparing for dangerous holiday heat as demand surges and record temperatures threaten power systems.

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A Long Hot Summer

A dangerous and potentially record-breaking heat wave is intensifying across the central and eastern United States ahead of the Independence Day holiday. This has prompted three regional power grid operators to activate reliability procedures as electricity demand climbs toward near-record levels.

According to Industrial Info Resources forecasts, widespread temperatures in the upper 90s to lower 100s, combined with oppressive humidity and unusually warm overnight lows, will create one of the summer's most significant operational challenges for the electric power sector.

Power Grid Operators Prepare for Peak Demand

To maintain electric system reliability during the prolonged heat event, the nation's largest independent system operators (ISOs) are implementing coordinated operational measures designed to maximize available generation and protect transmission resources.

PJM Interconnection has issued Hot Weather Alerts across its entire service territory through July 3. It has also implemented a maintenance outage recall, requesting generation owners return available facilities to service to maximize capacity. PJM currently forecasts peak electricity demand approaching 160.900 gigawatts (GW) on Thursday, placing system operators on heightened alert as cooling demand continues to increase. The PJM market provides electricity to about 67 million people in all or parts of 13 states and the District of Columbia.

Similarly, the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO), which covers all or parts of 15 U.S. states and Manitoba, Canada, has expanded hot weather alerts across its north, central and south regions through Sunday as temperatures climb across much of its footprint. Meanwhile, the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) has activated its tiered monitoring procedures and projects statewide electricity demand will exceed 31.7 GW Thursday.

Although these procedures are part of established grid reliability protocols, simultaneous heat-related actions by three of the country's largest system operators underscore the widespread operational impacts expected through the holiday period.

Watches and Warnings as of June 30, 1:30 PM CDT

Source: Pivotal Weather

Heat Peaks Late Week as Records Fall

A strengthening upper-level ridge centered over the Southeast will yield dangerous heat across much of the central and eastern United States into the July 4th holiday weekend. Afternoon temperatures are expected to reach the upper 90s to lower 100s across a broad region, while abundant low-level moisture pushes peak heat index values between 105 and 115 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) across portions of the Midwest, Mississippi Valley, Ohio Valley, Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

The National Weather Service forecasts the heat wave will peak Thursday and Friday, when approximately 58 daily high-temperature records could be tied or broken on Thursday, followed by another 45 records on Friday. Overnight temperatures remaining in the 70s will provide little relief, increasing the cumulative health risks associated with prolonged heat exposure and sustaining elevated overnight electricity demand.

Severe Weather Adds Additional Grid Risk

While dangerous heat remains the dominant weather story, a series of frontal boundaries moving along the northern edge of the ridge will generate repeated rounds of thunderstorms from the central High Plains through the Upper Midwest, extending into the Northeast. Some storms may become severe, producing damaging winds, large hail, and localized flash flooding.

The combination of peak electricity demand and the potential for localized storm-related outages presents an additional operational challenge for utilities and grid operators as they work to maintain reliable electric service during one of the busiest travel and energy consumption periods of the summer.

Key Takeaways

• Dangerous heat will peak across the central and eastern U.S. through the Independence Day holiday, driving near-record electricity demand.
• PJM, MISO, and NYISO have activated hot weather procedures to maintain grid reliability during the prolonged heat wave.
• PJM has recalled maintenance outages to maximize available generating capacity ahead of projected peak demand on July 2.
• Approximately 58 daily high-temperature records could be tied or broken Thursday, followed by another 45 records Friday.
• Heat index values between 105°F and 115°F, combined with warm overnight lows, will sustain elevated cooling demand and increase heat stress.
• Severe thunderstorms along the northern edge of the heat dome may create localized transmission and power restoration challenges during peak electricity usage.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).