U.S. LNG Export Levels to Grow Through 2050

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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--U.S. exports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) by 2050 could far exceed what's been permitted through the end of last year, a U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) report found.

The U.S. is the world leader in both natural gas production and exports of LNG. Total exports are expected to average 12 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) this year, unchanged from 2023 levels, but increase to 14 Bcf/d by next year.

A report published Tuesday by the DOE's Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management finds that U.S. LNG exports will surpass what's been authorized already through the end of 2023 by the middle of the century.

By 2045, estimates show exports could average 43.6 Bcf/d and reach 56.3 Bcf/d by 2050. Data from IIR Energy show the seven LNG export facilities in operation were operating at about 95% of their peak capacity as of Tuesday, churning out 15.5 billion cubic feet of product.

Cheniere Energy Incorporated's (NYSE:LNG) Sabine Pass facility in Louisiana is the largest by volume, with about 5 billion cubic feet of gas in the liquid form produced on average this week. Subscribers to Industrial Info's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Oil & Gas Production Plant Database can click here for the plant profile.

Four new terminals are under construction that could combine for another 7 Bcf/d.

Of those, Industrial Info issued an alert to clients last week showing feedgas had entered Venture Global LNG's (Arlington, Virginia) Plaquemines facility in Louisiana. Once completed in 2026, the facility will be the second-largest LNG export facility in the country after Sabine Pass. Subscribers can click here for the project report and here for the plant profile. For more information, see December 16, 2024, article - Plaquemines Expected to Start Natural Gas Liquefaction Processes.

Even with the increases, the DOE found that domestic supplies should be adequate for demand.

"Across all scenarios, modeled U.S. domestic natural gas supply is sufficient to meet modeled global demand for U.S. LNG while continuing to meet domestic demand," the report said.

The report follows concerns from the oil and gas industry that a now court-suspended pause on new LNG facilities from outgoing President Joe Biden is standing in the way of the sector's full potential.

"After nearly a year of a politically motivated pause that has only weakened global energy security, it's never been clearer that U.S. LNG is critical for meeting growing demand for affordable, reliable energy while supporting our allies overseas," Mike Sommers, the head of the American Petroleum Institute (API), said in a statement.

Biden enacted the pause in part to examine methane emissions up and down the supply chain. Methane is the main component of natural gas, but is a greenhouse gas with far more warming potential than carbon dioxide. Future emission trends depend in part on carbon capture technology associated with LNG terminals.

On the global energy security concerns relayed by API, U.S. LNG helped support a European economy that was heavily dependent on Russian supplies before the outbreak of war in Ukraine sidelined those products with sanctions starting in 2022.

Europe from 2022 to 2023 accounted for 64% of total U.S. LNG exports. With an energy transition away from fossil fuels under way in the bloc, however, the DOE said China will have the highest level of LNG imports globally by 2050.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).