Baker Institute Forum: Outcome Options in Venezuela Could Be Good; Iran, Not So Much

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Written by Paul Wiseman for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

The Baker Institute hosted a forum on U.S. interests and policy in Venezuela, Iran and the Middle East.

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Iran: The More Things Change...

"I began my federal government career on an Iran hostage working group with the Department of State, and that was, what, 47 years ago. And you know, not all that much has changed...," said David M. Satterfield, introducing the topic of U.S. options for ending the conflict in Iran.

Satterfield, director of Rice University's Baker Institute for Public Policy, and decades of government leadership experience, hosted the Institute's May 20 forum, "Venezuela, Iran, and the Middle East: US Interests and Policy." According to Industrial Info Resources data, there are 312 active capital oil and gas production projects in Iran, valued at US$22.23 billion. In Venezuela, there are six active capital oil and gas production projects, valued at US$73 million.

Prior to his role at the Baker Institute, Satterfield had a diplomatic career spanning more than four decades, serving as the U.S. ambassador to Lebanon and Turkey, as well as the special envoy for Middle East humanitarian issues.

The featured speaker for the event was Elliott Abrams, senior fellow for middle eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. Previously, he served in multiple official positions in the administrations of Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush, as well as on a bipartisan commission under President Joe Biden.

The forum was aimed at discussing options for moving ahead after the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Maduro for alleged corruption, and then launched an attack on Iran's nuclear facilities. In both cases, the U.S. began operations that have yet to be completed, and for which questions abound as to proper solutions.

Why Iran Matters--and Then What?

"It matters because many of the problems in the Middle East are created by or greatly exacerbated by the Islamic regime in Iran," Abrams said. He added that the regime, which descended from the one that overthrew the Shah in 1979, through threats and violence, has wielded influence in Yemen, Iraq, Syria (here it may be changing) and Lebanon, which has then led to issues in Israel.

Abrams said that the main impetus for the February 28 start of hostilities was to eliminate Iran's nuclear capabilities, and "I give him (U.S. President Donald Trump) a great deal of credit for that." However, "To go back to the strategy question, it does not seem to me that 'Then what?' was thought through."

He pointed out that, although setting back Iran's nuclear capabilities is a type of victory, its other assets, such as drones and missiles, could be rebuilt to previous levels in about six months. In short, the battle over Iran's nuclear capability may have been won, but Iran can still claim victory, and indeed wield much power, as long as it still threatens the Strait of Hormuz.

The situation will be very hard to change, Abrams continued. The U.S. could destroy even more infrastructure in Iran, but Abrams voiced doubt that even that action would topple the current regime and, instead, could just lead to further retaliations that could cripple the entire region for a long time to come.

This is the case even though the vast majority of citizens there would welcome a positive change, because there are almost no mechanisms for them to accomplish that. Simply using the U.S. Navy to open the Strait of Hormuz would be dangerous and could cost many American lives, he added.

According to Industrial Info Resources Energy Marketing Strategist Geoffrey S. Lakings, "It's important to note the shift in 'victory' questions because the nuclear issue did not directly affect world trade. The Strait issue, through which pass 20% of the world's oil, and significant amounts of natural gas and other important goods, is raising prices and creating shortages worldwide."

Who Can Claim Victory?

Abrams suggested one more round of military action: "We will lift the blockade of Iran's ports if they will agree that the Strait of Hormuz...is an international waterway," and they cannot block it. Trump could then claim victory but he "cannot do that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed or under Iranian control."

What About Venezuela?

This is different, Abrams noted, because direct U.S. action there involved only Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, instead of an outright invasion.

Unlike Iran, which has had no idea of democracy in the lifetime of its current citizens, Venezuela, on the other hand, "threw out a dictator in 1958" and had decades of democracy until Hugo Chavez was elected president in 1999. Chavez dissolved the bicameral legislature and consolidated executive power.

Abrams pointed out that Venezuela still has political parties, and that the most recent election was won by a Maduro opponent, against great odds--even though Maduro did not honor the results.

He said he sees opposition leader Maria Corina Machado as "the next president of Venezuela" when/if new elections are held, because "she has become a national leader" and is very capable. Elections have currently been postponed until 2028 by acting leader Delcy Rodriguez.

Satterfield asked Abrams if he thought Trump sees the South American nation as a democracy. Said Abrams, "I don't think he cares whether Venezuela is a democracy. I think he cares that it not be in the Russia, China, Iran camp. But whether it's a democracy, whether it's Delsey Rodriguez or Maria Corina Machado, I think he does not care."

It's not a given that elections will be smooth, Abrams warned, because Machado has been out of the country for months, and some factions may not welcome her return. One stop was in Washington, D.C. where she presented her 2025 Nobel Peace Prize trophy to Trump. Machado she could be greeted by thousands of supporters upon her return to Venezuela, or arrested by the military, which still wields considerable power.

As Venezuela's oil production had declined since 1999 to minimal proportions, the outcome there is much less sensitive, and probably more easily solved, than the Iranian situation that affects 20% of the world's oil, and significant portions of many other key goods and minerals.

Key Takeaways

• Elections by 2028 could help resolve Venezuelan uncertainties.
• For Iran, it's no longer about nuclear--it's about the Strait of Hormuz blockade and its economic ripples.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).