Copper Miners Cut 2026 Guidance Following Severe Storms in Chile

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Written by Amir Richani for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Lundin and Antofagasta lowered their copper production guidance for this year following severe storms in Chile's north, with their combined 2026 guidance range now 35,000-55,000 tonnes below their previous outlook.

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Guidance Declines

Antofagasta Minerals and Lundin both announced copper production guidance declines after severe storms in northern Chile disrupted copper mining operations in July and August, reducing expected output in an already constrained market.

On August 19, Lundin reduced its Caserones mine guidance for 2026 from 130,000-140,000 tonnes to 120,000-130,000 tonnes after severe weather shutdowns. The company's cash cost at the mine also increased from US$2.05-$2.25 per pound to US$2.15-$2.35 per pound as a result of lower output.

The revision results from a July storm that impacted operations at Caserones and damaged powerline towers, followed by a second storm starting on August 13 that redamaged one of the affected transmission towers.

"Following the first storm, we expected the impact on production to remain within the lower end of our original guidance range. Unfortunately, a second severe storm disrupted recovery efforts and delayed our planned return to full operations, leading to additional unplanned downtime. As a result, we have revised our guidance to reflect the extended recovery period," said Jack Lundin, the company's chief executive officer.

Meanwhile, Lundin's Candelaria mine kept its production guidance unchanged despite being impacted by the storms.

A few days before Lundin's cut, Antofagasta's lowered its production target for 2026 from 650,000-700,000 tonnes to 625,000-655,000 tonnes of copper also due to severe weather disruptions at Los Pelambres mine in northern Chile.

Together, the revisions lowered the companies' combined 2026 production guidance by 35,000-55,000 tonnes. Lundin and Antofagasta have so far announced production changes, however, Bloomberg highlighted that Codelco and Anglo American activated security protocols because of the severe weather.

Chile Facing Setbacks

These production declines add to Chile's production challenges, which is expected to produce 5.27 million tonnes of copper in 2026, a decline of 2.6% from last year, according to Chile's Copper Commission, Cochilco.

In the first six months of the year, Chile produced 2.481 million tonnes of copper, a 6.6% drop from the same period last year.

However, Cochilco expects a partial production recovery in the second half of the year.

Promoting Investments

All this takes place as the new government of Jose Antonio Kast seeks to promote investments and exploration in Chile's mining sector to reverse years of stagnant production from aging operations and reach its 6 million-tonne target.

The government is promoting the gradual reduction of the corporate tax from 27% to 23%, and measures that include speeding up permits and unlocking cooperation with Argentina for deposits located near the border. For more on that, see August 19, 2026, article - Chile's Copper Growth Hinges on Faster Permitting, More Incentives.

Key Takeaways

• Lundin reduced its copper production guidance for 2026 by 10,000 tonnes due to severe weather impacting Chile.
• Antofagasta also reduced its copper production forecast from 650,000-700,000 tonnes to 625,000-655,000 tonnes.
• Chile's copper output is expected to drop by 2.6% to 5.27 million tonnes in 2026.

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