Energy Demand Soars as Asia, Africa Drive World Population Growth, Says U.N./Worldwatch

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Written by Richard Finlayson, Senior International Editor for Industrial Info Resource (Sugar Land, Texas)--The current world population of 7.2 billion will grow to somewhere between 6.8 billion and 16.6 billion by the end of this century, according to a recent look at population growth by the United Nations' demographers. Elements in the future mix include unexpectedly high fertility in a number of developing countries, as well as current trends in global birth, death and migration rate.

In 2012, 82.1 million people were added to the world's population, which was the highest annual increment since 1994. The U.N. report "World Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision" dispels a widespread expectation that population growth will end "on its own" sometime in the second half of this century.

A new medium-fertility or best-guess scenario suggests that the most likely outcome is that the world could gain more than more than 10 million people in the year 2100 and close the century with 10.9 billion people. The new projection suggests a global population of 9.6 billion by 2050, which is about 700 million more than the 8.9 billion projection for 2050 that the U.N. Population Division made about 10 years ago.

Women in many developing countries are having more children today than the U.N demographers previously thought, which caused estimate of fertility for 15 sub-Saharan countries to be raised by 5%. Spending on family planning has stagnated in recent years, with reluctance by governments in poorer countries to give it priority, reports World Watch (Washington D.C.).

While not factoring in possible effects of climate change and environmental impacts on mortality, the report sees average life expectancy to reach 82 years by 2100, up from the current 70, when the population of Africa will be 4.2 billion (out of the 10.9 billion global total) with a life expectancy of 77 years, compared to 58 years today.

About 96% of population growth occurs in developing countries, with Asia accounting for 54%. Asia has 60% of the world's population, followed by Africa, Europe, Latin America, the Caribbean, North America and Oceania, in that order. The report estimates that the global population is growing at a rate of 1.15% annually, but the rate is beginning to slow.

In its "Vital Signs/20" report, Worldwatch stated that in 2012, global oil consumption reached an all-time peak. Global coal production increased to 6,941 million tons in 2011. World Coal Association (WCA) put 2011 production at 7,678 million tons, which made coal the fastest growing fossil fuel. Driven by demand in China and India, coal's share in the primary energy mix reached 28% in 2011. WCA reports 30.3% and 42% of global electricity production from coal is the highest level since record-keeping began in 1971.

Passenger car production rose from 60.1 million vehicles in 2010 to 62.6 million in 2011, and topped out at a record 66.1 million vehicles in 2012.

Fresh water scarcity affected about 1.2 billion people in 2012; globally, sanitation and water access for 227 million people was improved between 2000 and 2010, lifting them out of the "slum dweller" category.

Over the last two decades efficient irrigation methods have increased more than six-fold, and organically certified agricultural land has more than tripled since 1999.

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