IIR's January 27 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
White House says ceasefire agreement between Lebanon, Israel to continue until Feb. 18		The U.S. said on Sunday that the agreement between Lebanon and Israel would remain in effect until Feb. 18, after Israel said on Friday it would keep troops in the south beyond the Sunday deadline set out in a U.S.-brokered ceasefire that halted last year's war with Hezbollah. Israeli forces killed 22 people in south Lebanon on Sunday as a deadline for their withdrawal passed and thousands of people tried to return to their homes in defiance of Israeli military orders, Lebanese authorities said.	Reuters	Join Industrial Info for Our In-Person 2025 North American Market Outlook
Poland warns against restarting Russia gas supplies		Poland's president has said that gas flows from Russia to Western Europe should never be restored, even if Russia and Ukraine reach a peace deal. Andrzej Duda told the BBC that the Nord Stream gas pipelines, which have not been used since 2022, "should be dismantled". This, he said, would mean the likes of Germany would not be tempted to restore Russian supplies to boost its own struggling economy.	BBC	IEA: Global Gas Market Fundamentals 'Remain Fragile'
Oil slips as Trump's Colombia sanctions threat reversed		Oil prices edged lower on Monday after the U.S. pulled back from initial sanctions threats against Colombia, reducing immediate concern over oil supply disruptions, though U.S. President Donald Trump's muscle-flexing is keeping markets twitchy. The U.S. swiftly reversed plans to impose sanctions and tariffs on Colombia after the South American nation agreed to accept deported migrants from the United States, the White House said late on Sunday. Colombia last year sent about 41% of its seaborne crude exports to the U.S., data from analytics firm Kpler shows.	Reuters	Trump Invokes 'Energy Emergency,' Vows to 'Drill Baby Drill'
Siemens Energy down 19% as European stocks sell off amid AI concerns Asia-Pacific markets track Wall Street gains as Trump pushes for rate cuts Trump uncertainties push safe-haven gold to near all-time high		European markets were in negative territory on Monday as investors in the region reacted to a potential AI breakthrough out of China. Asia-Pacific markets climbed Friday, after the S&P 500 hit record highs overnight as U.S. President Donald Trump called for lower interest rates and cheaper oil prices. The Bank of Japan raised policy rate by 25 basis points to 0.5% - the highest since 2008 and in line with economists' expectations. Following the decision, the Japanese yen weakened marginally to trade at 155.18 against the dollar. Gold prices soared to near three-month highs on Wednesday, trading just below its record peak, fuelled by a soft dollar and lack of clarity around U.S. President Donald Trump's policy plans, which investors fear could trigger trade wars and elevate market volatility.	CNBC	Dallas Fed Expecting Higher Natural Gas Prices
Natural Gas News: Will a February Cold Snap Reignite the Rally?		Cold February weather forecasts remain the market's key focus, with traders weighing heating demand against ample U.S. storage. Shifting February forecasts sparked late-week optimism in natural gas, reversing earlier losses driven by mild weather trends. LNG demand and colder U.S. forecasts fueled a rebound, with traders eyeing technical resistance levels for the next breakout. European LNG demand remained strong, countering production recovery in the U.S. after freeze-offs slowed earlier output.	FX Empire	Winter Storms Hit Natural Gas Storage, Temporarily Spike Prices
Wang tells Rubio leaders have set tone and direction of US-China ties		Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke with new U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Friday and Beijing said he told the known China hawk that the direction and tone of U.S.-China ties had been set by their leaders and he hoped Rubio would play a constructive role for the good of the people of both countries. Rubio, in the first telephone call between the two top diplomats under the new administration of U.S. President Donald Trump, told Wang that Trump, who began his second term on Monday, would pursue a relationship with China that "advances U.S. interests and puts the American people first," a State Department statement said.	Reuters	The Rise of Artificial Intelligence and the Significance of Its Energy Demands
Saudi Arabia Set to Hike Oil Prices to Asia to 14-Month High		Refiners in Asia expect Saudi Arabia to hike its official selling prices (OSPs) to Asia for March to the highest against benchmarks since January 2024, a Reuters survey found on Monday, as Middle East's key benchmarks are rallying on tightened Russian supply to China and India after the latest U.S. sanctions. If Saudi Arabia does next week as expected, the price of Arab Light could jump to a premium of at least $3.50 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, which is used by Middle Eastern exporters to price their crude going to Asia. Arab Light loading in February to Asia is priced at a premium of $1.50 over the Oman/Dubai average.	OilPrice	Abu Dhabi Launches Major Solar-plus -BESS Project
Week 01/20/25 - 01/27/25		Tit for Tat seems to be the precedent out of the White House as markets await supposed February deadlines on whether or not Tariffs will be imposed on several nations in the Americas, EuroZone, and Asia-Pacific (APAC) regions. There were already imposed sanctions on Russian and Iranian crude exports. While one witnessed what unfolded in Colombia over the weekend with the threat of tariffs - possibly driving yet more supply disruptions. And now China and the U.S. are taking each other's measure as the Lunar New Year draws nigh in this Year of the Snake - said to represent wisdom, intuition, and transformation. The latter most assuredly is in the cards for energy, economics and geopolitics. But how wise ultimately will some of these "tit for tat" negotiating measures from the U.S. administration be?
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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