IIR's March 1 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Russian sanctions to determine direction for oil prices		The potential for Western powers to put sanctions on Russian energy supplies in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine will be the main factor driving oil markets this week, analysts said. The price for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark for the price of oil, topped the $100 per barrel during intraday trading last week after Russian forces crossed the border into Ukraine. West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, came very close to following suit during trading Thursday. As the Western response unfolded without targeting Russia's energy supplies, however, neither benchmark stayed around $100 threshold for long. WTI finished the week where it started off, closing the trading day Friday at $91.59 per barrel. But as Russia pressed its attack on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and other major cities, the White House insisted it would not target oil and gas flows nor financial transactions related to energy. It's unclear how those financial transactions would be affected should Western powers decide to isolate Russia further from the SWIFT international banking system. "It's still too early to tell what type of sanctions the West will go for against Russia," said Claudio Galimberti, a senior vice president of analysis at Norwegian consultancy Rystad Energy. "That will determine the oil price risk premium going forward."	Houston Chronicle	BP and Equinor Pulling Out of Russia over Ukraine Invasion
Crude falls from $100 with Russian oil sanctions off the table		Oil extended its retreat from a seven-year high after the U.S. reiterated its decision not to sanction Russian energy exports. Futures in New York closed below $92 a barrel on Friday after falling from highs of $100 the previous day. The pullback came after the U.S. State Department said it won't sanction Russian crude oil because that would harm U.S. consumers and not Russian President Vladimir Putin. At the same time, the International Energy Agency pledged to help ensure global energy security in the midst of the crisis. "It seems that the U.S. and its allies want to inflict pain on Russia but do not want to impede their ability to deliver energy products to the world," said Bart Melek, head of commodity strategy at TD Securities.	Bloomberg	Russia's Invasion of Ukraine Puts Both Countries' Industrial Heavyweights in Rough Waters
Iran nuclear talks awaiting decision from Tehran		The text of a proposed nuclear deal between Iran and world powers, distributed by the European Union to negotiators, is in limbo while the head of Iran's delegation consults with the Tehran government over its terms, according to U.S. and foreign officials familiar with the talks being held in Vienna. "There are papers and text that have been shared," a senior State Department official said Friday. "I think enough is on the table now that Iran has a very clear sense of what it stands to gain and what it stands to lose" in returning to compliance with the 2015 agreement that limited its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. Chief Iranian negotiator Ali Bagheri Kani left Vienna late Wednesday following what several officials familiar with the text said were indications the Iranian team found it largely acceptable. Since then, the Iranian government, which has been publicly outspoken about its positions since the talks began last year, has been silent on the subject. ... The apparent endgame in the Iran talks arrives as the United States is locked in confrontation with Russia over Ukraine and has shut down most communication with Moscow. U.S. officials throughout the talks have said that both Russia and China have played constructive roles, and the State Department official said that has not changed.	Washington Post	Could Iranian Barrels Spoil the Current Rally?
OPEC+ unlikely to change course on output despite $100 oil, Ukraine crisis		Despite $100 oil and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the OPEC+ alliance is set to rubberstamp another 400,000 BBL/d increase in monthly production targets next week, several OPEC+ sources told Reuters on Friday. Russia and OPEC's de facto leader Saudi Arabia lead the OPEC+ group, which has been managing supply to the market since the beginning of 2017 and survived the 2020 crash in demand and a month-long rift over market share between OPEC's Saudi Arabia and the leader of the non-OPEC group in the pact, Russia. Several OPEC members are also U.S. allies, such as the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Kuwait. The Russian invasion of Ukraine -the move that triggered oil's jump to $100 earlier this week-hasn't changed the dynamics in the OPEC+ group, sources at the alliance told Reuters. "Russia has a close partnership with the Saudis, so the cooperation will go on," a Russian oil source told Reuters. "Regarding the next meeting - no changes are expected for now," the source added. A senior source with OPEC+ rejected the idea that the Russian attack on Ukraine could be the end of the OPEC+ alliance. Four other sources at OPEC+ told Reuters they did not expect changes in the deal when ministers meet next week to discuss output levels for April. OPEC+ needs to keep a steady policy and not politicize the decision because it is not a political organization, those sources said.	OilPrice	Ukraine Invasion Adds Major Risk Premium to Commodities
Global oil tanker rates jolt higher on high fuel prices, risk premiums		Oil tanker rates are soaring globally as traders scramble to cope with jitters over possible disruption in Russian supplies, as well as war risk premiums for ships plying the Mediterranean region following Moscow's invasion of Ukraine. Shipowners are also grappling with higher fuel costs after oil prices soared nearly $2 per barrel on Friday, with Brent back above $100. The global energy sector is concerned that Europe and the United States may impose sanctions on Russian exports and severely disrupt supplies. Sources were also worried that any additional widening in sanctions could render some Russian oil and fuel supplies off-limits, and trigger a scramble by fuel and oil traders to secure alternative supplies that could tie up vessels on trips to exporters outside the Black Sea region. Fuel tanker rates from the United States to Europe jumped more than 8% on Thursday, surging to their highest level since May 2020. The cost of bunkering fuel at the world's largest bunkering hub Singapore jumped 6% on Thursday to $555 per tonne, the highest since 2019.	Reuters	Methanol's Place in the Race to Cleaner Bunker Fuels
Weekly Recap: 2/19-2/26		Humpty Dumpty had a great fall... & all the king's horses and all the king's men could not put Humpty back together again. In some ways, might this be what world leaders - especially Western ones - are facing in regard to piecing back together international order with Russia having invaded Ukraine? For rhetoric has been spoken, sanctions and other actions have been enacted by the "king's men" - Western world leaders - against Russia who brought about "Humpty's fall" (perceived world order). Now we wait to see how geopolitics play out. At this point there is not expected significant supply disruptions as sanctions are not being imposed on Russia energy exports. Nor is OPEC+ expected to bring more oil to markets. Rest assured, it will be a volatile week full of uncertainty ahead...
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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