NERC Warns ISOs on Potential Energy Shortfalls this Summer

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--The North American Electric Reliability Corporation's (NERC) recently released Summer Reliability Assessment Report is sounding the alarm on a series of issues facing the Midcontinental Independent System Operator (MISO) this summer. Lower water levels and droughts could mean an increase in unplanned outages. NERC also warns that demand could be strained; key transmission system repairs and tie-ins could see their completions delayed; and the system could see more than 3 gigawatts (GW) of generation shortfall.

MISO said in April that it expects a 5-GW shortfall of needed generation capacity moving into the summer months, which is much larger than NERC's prediction. But MISO's estimate represents the worst-case scenario for blackouts or brownouts in its operating system.

In other independent system operator (ISO) regions, droughts and wildfires pose major threats to hydro-generation assets' ability to run at full load. Wildfires in areas served by the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) and the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) are hindering utilities from supplying the power grid. Last year's wildfires caused massive havoc and damage to both systems.

Click on the image at right to see a map from NERC detailing the summer reliability risk for different areas of the U.S. and Canada.

These are not the only regions expected to endure drought and heavy heat conditions over the summer. Areas served by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) and the Southwest Power Pool (SPP) are expected to lose power generation due to lower water levels, which will affect hydropower generation, as well as the thermal generation that uses these assets for cooling. ERCOT also is facing concerns surrounding the performance and availability of its wind and solar assets.

Other issues that affect ISOs and regional transmission organizations (RTO) include supply-chain and commissioning challenges; cyber security threats; and coal-fired generation assets that continue to face fuel-supply shortages. In addition, generator interconnection queues are clogged with renewable-energy and battery-storage projects, significantly slowing--and, in some cases, halting--approvals for new generation.

Industrial Info is tracking more than 1 terawatt of power-generation facilities that either have already started or are set to begin maintenance activities from now through September. All it would take is a series of forced outages in critical locations to cause major issues for many of these regions.

Click on the image at right for a graph detailing planned offline events at power-generation facilities from now through September, by U.S. market region.

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