OPEC: Canada, Brazil, Argentina to Lead Oil Growth Beyond 2030

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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Beyond 2030, any significant oil production growth from producers outside of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) takes place only in Canada, Brazil and Argentina, OPEC said in its World Oil Outlook report.

The United States is expected to drive much of the growth to 2030, contributing some 1.4 million barrels per day (BBL/d) through the end of the decade. That, meanwhile, accounts for 25% of the expected growth to 2030, economists at OPEC reported.

Supported by the vast volumes of oil in the shale deposits in the Lower 48 states, the United States is the world leader in crude oil production, with an average of 13.4 million barrels per day (BBL/d) expected for this year.

Much of that comes from the Permian Basin spread out over parts of Texas and Mexico. The basin is expected to account for about half of total U.S. crude oil production. For its part, OPEC+, a group of core members and non-member states such as Russia, are unwinding voluntary production restraint and putting more barrels on the water.

That surplus could offset demand given concerns that U.S. trade policies are undermining global economic growth. Tamas Varga, an analyst at London oil broker PVM, wrote in a Thursday morning newsletter that U.S. trade policies embraced by President Donald Trump are something of an unsolvable jigsaw puzzle.

"The pieces are constantly being moved around by the U.S. president in an ad hoc manner, and it remains unclear what the final picture will look like," he wrote.

But OPEC is optimistic. Economists there see oil demand as "robust" through 2030, with growth increasing from 103.7 million BBL/d last year to 113.3 million BBL/d. Much of the demand growth comes from countries outside the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), namely India, the Asian economies, the Middle East and Africa.

"Combined demand in these four regions is set to increase by 22.4 million BBL/d between 2024 and 2050, with India alone adding 8.2 million BBL/d," economists wrote.

To meet that demand, OPEC said short-term supplies would be supported by U.S. shale volumes. Economists in Vienna said they expected total U.S. production to reach 16.5 million BBL/d by the end of the decade, a 12% increase from the expected 2025 average.

But beyond 2030, OPEC sees only a handful of non-member states adding to net global oil volumes. Any long-term and meaningful supply growth beyond 2030 would come from Argentina, Brazil and Canada.

Argentina is propped up by the lucrative Vaca Muerta shale basin, while Brazil hosts a lucrative field in the offshore Santos Basin. The heavy oil deposits in Canada, meanwhile, are some of the largest in the world.

With bilateral relations turning sour with the return of Trump to the White House, Canadian leaders are looking for oil export options outside of North America by way of an expanded national midstream network.

Capacity on the Trans Mountain crude oil pipeline to British Columbia has been doubled to 880,000 BBL/d, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney said recently it was highly likely the government would include more pipelines on the list of national priority projects.

U.S. government forecasts, meanwhile, point to a looming decline in shale oil production. A federal forecast for July shows drilling and completion activity is slowing down, leading to a slump in output.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), the Energy Department's data cruncher, lowered its forecast for total domestic production from an all-time high of 13.4 million BBL/d on average for the second quarter to less than 13.3 million BBL/d by the fourth quarter of next year.

The entire decline, meanwhile, is expected to come from inland U.S. shale deposits. As a result, OPEC said it expected demand for crude oil from its member states to expand from 49.1 million BBL/d last year to 64.1 million BBL/d by 2050, increasing their overall market share from 48% in 2024 to 52% in 2050.

Gains outside of OPEC+ are still expected. Economists said they saw non-OPEC+ production increasing from 53.3 million BBL/d last year to 58.9 million BBL/d in 2050.

OPEC added that cumulative investments of $18.2 trillion may be necessary to 2050 to ensure global oil supplies are adequate.

"The challenge of meeting these investment requirements is huge, and any shortfall in meeting these needs could impact market stability and energy security," it warned.

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