Politics in South Korea, Poland, Holland Affect Energy Markets

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Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--An old football cheer comes to mind when evaluating last week's political situations.

Lean to the left: In South Korea's elections, the center-left Democratic Party candidate Lee Jae-myung won the June 3 snap election, with his party gaining just under 50% of the seats, compared to Kim Moon-soo's 41%.

This came about after the previous prime minister, Yoon Suk Yeol, attempted to impose martial law and after a lengthy battle was impeached. Kim was a member of Yoon's party.

Lean to the right: On the other side of the globe, Poland voters installed Karol Nawrocki of the far-right national conservative Law and Justice (PiS) as president by a narrow 50.9-49.1% margin over liberal Warsaw mayor Rafal Trzaskowski. While this is a largely ceremonial role, the president does have authority to initiate and veto legislation.

The previous president, Andrzej Duda, vetoed bills several times as member of a slightly-less-conservative party. Because Prime Minister Donald Tusk's coalition lacks the votes to overturn vetoes, some fear Nawrocki could virtually paralyze the government.

About 18 months ago, the PiS lost power in Poland's lower parliamentary house, the Sejm. The winner was Tusk's Civic Platform party (PO). The center-right-liberal PO leads the ruling Civic Coalition.

Fight, fight, fight: In Holland, a dispute over immigration legislation prompted Geert Wilders to remove his far-right party from that nation's ruling coalition. Snap elections may be in the offing there as well, as Prime Minister Dick Schoof resigned and offered King Willem-Alexander the cabinet's resignation as well.

Schoof had been elevated to the position in 2023, even though Wilders' party led the coalition. It had become apparent that Wilders was too polarizing a figure to become prime minister, so he put Schoof forward as a compromise.

Here's what this means to energy policies:

South Korea: The biggest change could be in nuclear energy, which Yoon has proposed expanding. Kim had proposed almost doubling nuclear energy, pushing its share of South Korea's generation portfolio to 60%, which would have been up from its 32% share in 2024. He later pared those numbers. Yoon also had looked to export the nation's nuclear expertise to boost its economy.

South Korean nuclear technology exports are rising, specifically the APR1400 reactor design, said IIR's Energy Market Strategist Geoffrey S. Lakings. He pointed to two reactors in the Czech Republic and the United Arab Emirates, among others. South Korea's previously stated goal was to export 80 reactors by 2030.

Lee is more focused on renewables, but he said nuclear energy is necessary for now. Some see him looking to boost renewables to 30% and to shut down coal-fired plants by 2040. Nuclear plants would be phased out more slowly.

The future of liquefied natural gas (LNG) is less clear. It was reported that at least two South Korean companies have participated in the strategic partner selection process for an Alaskan LNG project that could lead to the nation importing more U.S. LNG. U.S. President Donald Trump has pressured South Korea and other nations to import more U.S. LNG to balance trade.

Poland: The government already was behind on its promise to reduce investment in coal. Polish energy analyst Jakub Wiech in December 2024 noted that the government was planning to invest about US$2.4 billion in the industry in 2025, up significantly from its 2024 spending. At the time of that report, the current government had been in power for about a year.

If coal is to be used, this kind of support is deemed necessary because Polish coal mining costs are among the highest in the world. Its mines have been worked to the point that the remaining coal is of very low quality--and the terrain surrounding the mines is difficult to navigate.

Despite promises by the ruling coalition to promote renewables, energy transition advocates accuse them of passing almost no legislation toward that end. With an even more conservative president in place now, any chance for renewable legislation would seem remote.

Holland: The legislative body has been shut down due to the withdrawal of Wilder's support. The first move would be to try to assimilate a new coalition. If that is unsuccessful, yet another nation would be faced with snap elections, probably later this year. With that type of uncertainty, no energy policies of any sort would see much daylight until there is a resolution.

In sum: For all this political turmoil, there seems to be few changes happening in energy policy. Only a slight renewable move in South Korea appears likely.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) platform helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking more than 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).