Russian Nuclear Power Plans Gain Critical Mass with Up to Additional 30,000 Megawatts by 2020

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Written by Richard Finlayson, International Correspondent for Industrialinfo.com (Industrial Information Resources, Incorporated; Houston, Texas). With a long history of commitment to nuclear power generation, Russia is now backing project plans for a new generation of nuclear power plants through 2020. Although, the whole Russian power generation and distribution system is undergoing reform, or perhaps "re-regulation," with the central power grid monopoly, Unified Energy System of Russia (UES) (Moscow) spinning off regional power utilities and creating separate companies to handle generation, distribution, and marketing, the ability of the central political power base is still able to make nuclear commitments with a degree less political sensitivity than most other major global power players. But the signs of support for increased investment in nuclear power generation are evident worldwide, with some of the leading green lobbies supporting the trend.

The debate is not taking place on the basis of the desirability of renewable additions to the margins of grid supply or even on crucial peak load standby. It's all about the heavy grind of baseload provision and the underlying security of power supply in an era of high-growth, globally, for electrical power. Cleaner air and the reversal of the growth rate of greenhouse emissions are the motherhood-and-apple-pies of the power generation debate. What are likely to win out in the crucial baseload challenge are the cost efficient and cleaner generating technologies of leading-edge coal, gas (ccgt with various feedstocks), and nuclear power units.

Nuclear power output in Russia has seen capacity utilization factors leaping from 56% to 76%, in the 1998 to 2003 period. Nuclear power is expected to increase to 25% of Russia's electricity supply by 2020, and the share of gas as a power feedstock will drop to 28%.

The World Nuclear Association reports that state energy giant Gazprom cut back on natural gas supplies for electricity generation by 12%, over two years, as it can earn five times as much from gas exports to the west as it does from domestic sales. Also, by 2020, the Western Siberian gas fields will be so depleted that they will supply only 10% of current output compared to the 75% they service now.

With 31 reactor units in operation, the country has a nuclear capacity of 21,743 MW. With 23 new plants planned to come into operation in the period 2010 - 2020 and five major replacements during the same period, capacity should grow to something between 35,000 to 50,000 MW of nuclear capacity by 2020. Currently, there are five nuclear plants with an investment of $15 billion under construction, with a total power capacity of 4,525 MW.

With the guidelines for developing large-scale nuclear power in Russia setting capital costs under $1,000/kW, power costs not more than three cents/kWh, service life at least 50 years, and utilization rate at least 90%, the chairman of the state's Duma energy, transport, and communications committee, Valeriy Yazev announced in December that a further six nuclear power stations would be launched by 2010, with a total capacity of 5,800 MW. Sites for these plants include Kursk, Rostov, Saratov, Yekaterinburg, and the St Petersburg region. These plants would reverse a slowdown in Russia's economic development and motivate social development in surrounding regions, and preserve existing nuclear machine building skills.

At the same time, the Russian nuclear industry is pursuing export orders for plants with vigor. It has the Bushehr project in Iran and is looking at a further seven projects in that country, two plants are due to start operation in China in 2005, and the Kudankulam project in India is under construction with start-up scheduled for 2008.

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