Released July 11, 2018 | SUGAR LAND
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Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--This year, for the first time in its 67-year history, BP Plc's (NYSE:BP) (London, England) annual statistical review of world energy took a look at the fuel mix in the Electric Power sector. And executives at the oil giant were dismayed at what they saw: Despite the well-documented dramatic gains of renewable energy in recent years, the proportion of electricity generated from fossil fuels has essentially remained steady for the last 20 years.
BP's report, "Energy in 2017 - Two Steps Forward, One Step Back," notes that global electricity demand rose 2.8% last year, and nearly all of that came in the developing world.
Demand by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries "edged up slightly, but essentially the decoupling of economic growth and power demand in the OECD seen over the past 10 years continued, with OECD power (demand) broadly flat over the past decade," Spencer Dale, group chief economist for BP, said June 13 when unveiling the annual statistical review. The OECD has 36 member countries, primarily in Europe and North America.
Click on the image at right to see a graphic on annual global power demand growth since 2005.
Dale noted the strong expansion in renewable generation in 2017, led by wind, which increased 17%, or about 163 terawatt-hours (TWh) and solar, which rose 35%, or roughly 114 TWh. Renewable energy is "punching far above (its) weight. Although wind continued in its role of the bigger, more established, elder cousin, it was solar energy that made all the waves."
Developers added about 100,000 megawatts (MW) of solar generation capacity in 2017, and about half of that was installed in China, according to the BP report.
Click on the image at right to see the growth of solar generating capacity, and the amount of electricity generated by solar power plants, in China and the rest of the world since 2001.
Dale acknowledged that favorable public policies have helped renewables' rise in recent years. But another important part of that rise has to do with solar's declining costs: "auction bids of less than 5 cents per kilowatt-hour - which would have been unthinkable for most projects even just a few years ago - (are) now almost common place," he said. "The cost reductions in solar over the past few years are significant."
Despite the gains in renewable generation, Dale said, "the most striking - and worrying - chart in the whole of this Stats Review is the trends in the power sector fuel mix over the past 20 years. 'Striking' because despite the extraordinary growth in renewables in recent years, and the huge policy efforts to encourage a shift away from coal into cleaner, lower carbon fuels, there has been almost no improvement in the power sector fuel mix over the past 20 years."
"The share of coal in the power sector in 1998 was 38% - exactly the same as in 2017 - with the slight edging down in recent years simply reversing the drift up in the early 2000s associated with China's rapid expansion," the BP group chief economist continued. "The share of non-fossil in 2017 is actually a little lower than it was 20 years ago, as the growth of renewables hasn't offset the declining share of nuclear."
Dale added: "I hadn't realized that so little progress had been made until I looked at these data."
The data is worrying to Dale because, he said, because "the power sector is the single most important source of carbon emissions from energy consumption, accounting for over a third of those emissions in 2017. To have any chance of getting on a path consistent with meeting the Paris climate goals, there will need to be significant improvements in the power sector. This chart should serve as a wake-up call for all of us." For more on this, see June 26, 2018, article - 'One Step Back': BP Rues Increased Global Coal Use.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
BP's report, "Energy in 2017 - Two Steps Forward, One Step Back," notes that global electricity demand rose 2.8% last year, and nearly all of that came in the developing world.
Demand by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries "edged up slightly, but essentially the decoupling of economic growth and power demand in the OECD seen over the past 10 years continued, with OECD power (demand) broadly flat over the past decade," Spencer Dale, group chief economist for BP, said June 13 when unveiling the annual statistical review. The OECD has 36 member countries, primarily in Europe and North America.
Dale noted the strong expansion in renewable generation in 2017, led by wind, which increased 17%, or about 163 terawatt-hours (TWh) and solar, which rose 35%, or roughly 114 TWh. Renewable energy is "punching far above (its) weight. Although wind continued in its role of the bigger, more established, elder cousin, it was solar energy that made all the waves."
Developers added about 100,000 megawatts (MW) of solar generation capacity in 2017, and about half of that was installed in China, according to the BP report.
Dale acknowledged that favorable public policies have helped renewables' rise in recent years. But another important part of that rise has to do with solar's declining costs: "auction bids of less than 5 cents per kilowatt-hour - which would have been unthinkable for most projects even just a few years ago - (are) now almost common place," he said. "The cost reductions in solar over the past few years are significant."
Despite the gains in renewable generation, Dale said, "the most striking - and worrying - chart in the whole of this Stats Review is the trends in the power sector fuel mix over the past 20 years. 'Striking' because despite the extraordinary growth in renewables in recent years, and the huge policy efforts to encourage a shift away from coal into cleaner, lower carbon fuels, there has been almost no improvement in the power sector fuel mix over the past 20 years."
"The share of coal in the power sector in 1998 was 38% - exactly the same as in 2017 - with the slight edging down in recent years simply reversing the drift up in the early 2000s associated with China's rapid expansion," the BP group chief economist continued. "The share of non-fossil in 2017 is actually a little lower than it was 20 years ago, as the growth of renewables hasn't offset the declining share of nuclear."
Dale added: "I hadn't realized that so little progress had been made until I looked at these data."
The data is worrying to Dale because, he said, because "the power sector is the single most important source of carbon emissions from energy consumption, accounting for over a third of those emissions in 2017. To have any chance of getting on a path consistent with meeting the Paris climate goals, there will need to be significant improvements in the power sector. This chart should serve as a wake-up call for all of us." For more on this, see June 26, 2018, article - 'One Step Back': BP Rues Increased Global Coal Use.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR), with global headquarters in Sugar Land, Texas, six offices in North America and 12 international offices, is the leading provider of global market intelligence specializing in the industrial process, heavy manufacturing and energy markets. Industrial Info's quality-assurance philosophy, the Living Forward Reporting Principle, provides up-to-the-minute intelligence on what's happening now, while constantly keeping track of future opportunities. Follow IIR on: Facebook - Twitter - LinkedIn. For more information on our coverage, send inquiries to info@industrialinfo.com or visit us online at http://www.industrialinfo.com.
