Texans May Face 'Extreme' Power Conditions this Summer

Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Texans may experience electric emergencies this summer under certain extreme conditions, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) (Austin, Texas), the state's electric grid operator, warned in its May 3 Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA).

Electricity from ERCOT meets about 90% of the state's electric load. The agency coordinates the output from more than 1,100 electric generation units in the state.

A growing percentage of the state's peak electric demand is being met with non-dispatchable resources like wind power and solar energy, which increasingly ties the state's electricity fortunes to weather conditions. Texas is hot enough on "average" summers, and high temperatures reduce wind. A hotter-than-normal summer means wind turbines will generate even less electricity than usual.

Hotter summers could also lead to more unplanned power plant outages. And cloudier-than-average weather conditions could cut into solar generation.

ERCOT CEO Pablo Vegas said the agency expects the grid to "be reliable," but the high reliance on non-dispatchable renewable resources like wind and solar means consumers and businesses, to some degree, are at the mercy of the weather.

Texas news organizations quoted Vegas: "Our models estimate that this summer's peak could be about 6,000 megawatts (MW) greater than last summer's. However, we're only expecting a nominal increase of about 850 MW of thermal capacity since last summer."

News reports quoted Peter Lake, chairman of the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) (Austin, Texas), a separate agency: "On the hottest days of summer, there is no longer enough on-demand dispatchable power generation to meet demand in the ERCOT system. We will continue to use every tool available to keep the lights on, and the ACs running this summer, but we do not have any control over wind or sun."

"Data shows for the first time that the peak demand for electricity this summer will exceed the amount we can generate from on demand dispatchable power," Lake added.

While Texas has seen a surge in renewable energy development in recent years, dispatchable generation has only risen by a reported 1.5% between 2008 and 2020, while the population has grown by about 24% over that time, according to news reports.

ERCOT estimated that the state's dispatchable generation--nuclear, coal, natural gas and biomass--is about 64,710 MW. Tens of thousands of additional megawatts come from wind, solar and hydro. Under its "normal" scenario, this summer's peak electric demand is projected to reach about 82,739 MW.

The agency estimated it will be able to meet this summer's peak electric demand under one "extreme" scenario, where there is extreme peak load, a typical level of unplanned outages (about 5,034 MW) and a typical amount of electricity generated by wind and solar power plants.

But ERCOT projected there could be energy emergencies of varying severity under two other "extreme" cases:

• Extreme peak load, extreme unplanned power plant outages, and typical wind and solar generation
• High peak load, extreme unplanned power plant outages and extreme low wind

In a statement accompanying its Summer SARA, the grid operator said: "Assuming that the ERCOT Region experiences typical summer grid conditions, ERCOT anticipates that there will be sufficient installed generating capacity available to serve the system wide forecasted peak load for the upcoming summer season, June September 2023."

The agency said that itself, the PUCT and thermal generation owners are closely monitoring the potential impacts of a March 15 ruling by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) (Washington, D.C.) on the so-called "Good Neighbor Plan" for reducing cross-state emissions of ozone forming nitrogen oxides (NOx). Several generation owners in the ERCOT region indicated the potential that certain generators may face operational constraints in complying with the program's provisions as soon as this July.

Texas, Louisiana and other parties filed a motion with the Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals to stay the EPA's regulatory action, due to potential reliability impacts. Earlier this month, the Fifth Circuit granted the motion to stay the EPA action.

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