Released November 18, 2024 | SUGAR LAND
en
Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Though no part of the country has a high risk of energy shortfalls this coming winter, the North American Energy Reliability Corporation (NERC) said Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states could face problems due in part to natural gas availability.
"Winter brings unique challenges for the electric industry, and this year, growing demand and increased reliance on natural gas add new layers of risk." said John Moura, the director of reliability assessments at NERC.
Like last year, NERC found no areas of high risk for energy shortfalls and all areas are expected to have adequate resources, but parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could face grid issues under extreme conditions.
A forecast through February from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) finds a slowly-developing La Nina system is expected to create wetter-than-average conditions for the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region, with drought likely in the south. Only the Northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest are expecting a colder-than-normal winter this season.
NERC added, however, that parts of the country may face risks from the lack of available natural gas and the retirement of some power plants.
A November report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) finds the share of natural gas on the grid will decline by 2% next year to 40% of the total power. The share of renewable energy on the grid increases 2% to reach 25%, and both nuclear power and coal-fired electricity stay the same at 19% and 15%, respectively.
Natural gas production, meanwhile, is plateauing in the U.S. and some energy companies are scaling back their renewable energy initiatives on cost concerns. Lower natural gas prices and weak refining margins too are leading some companies to curtail production.
The EIA, meanwhile, finds that natural gas consumption from both the residential and commercial sectors is on pace to increase by 4% relative to this year's winter season because of the expected demand for heating.
NERC warned that gas wells can freeze in extreme cold and disrupt pipeline deliveries. A winter storm dubbed Elliot in 2022 threatened to freeze nearly 3 million barrels per day (BBL/d) in refining capacity along the Gulf Coast, while colder winters in general can lead to issues with wind turbines. More than 25% of the power outages from Elliot were caused by fuel issues, NERC found.
Winter Storm Uri from 2021, meanwhile, impacted operations at 32 chemical plants and 23 refineries in the Gulf Coast region when it blew through the area in February 2021.
Mark Olson, a reliability manager at NERC, said that regulatory measures on winterization that came after Uri and Elliot were net-positive for the grid.
"However, we cannot ignore ongoing concerns around natural gas supply and NERC encourages entities across the gas-electric value chain to take the actions necessary to prepare for extreme cold, to keep gas flowing, and to keep the lights and furnaces on," he stressed.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
"Winter brings unique challenges for the electric industry, and this year, growing demand and increased reliance on natural gas add new layers of risk." said John Moura, the director of reliability assessments at NERC.
Like last year, NERC found no areas of high risk for energy shortfalls and all areas are expected to have adequate resources, but parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast could face grid issues under extreme conditions.
A forecast through February from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) finds a slowly-developing La Nina system is expected to create wetter-than-average conditions for the Pacific Northwest and Great Lakes region, with drought likely in the south. Only the Northern Plains and the Pacific Northwest are expecting a colder-than-normal winter this season.
NERC added, however, that parts of the country may face risks from the lack of available natural gas and the retirement of some power plants.
A November report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) finds the share of natural gas on the grid will decline by 2% next year to 40% of the total power. The share of renewable energy on the grid increases 2% to reach 25%, and both nuclear power and coal-fired electricity stay the same at 19% and 15%, respectively.
Natural gas production, meanwhile, is plateauing in the U.S. and some energy companies are scaling back their renewable energy initiatives on cost concerns. Lower natural gas prices and weak refining margins too are leading some companies to curtail production.
The EIA, meanwhile, finds that natural gas consumption from both the residential and commercial sectors is on pace to increase by 4% relative to this year's winter season because of the expected demand for heating.
NERC warned that gas wells can freeze in extreme cold and disrupt pipeline deliveries. A winter storm dubbed Elliot in 2022 threatened to freeze nearly 3 million barrels per day (BBL/d) in refining capacity along the Gulf Coast, while colder winters in general can lead to issues with wind turbines. More than 25% of the power outages from Elliot were caused by fuel issues, NERC found.
Winter Storm Uri from 2021, meanwhile, impacted operations at 32 chemical plants and 23 refineries in the Gulf Coast region when it blew through the area in February 2021.
Mark Olson, a reliability manager at NERC, said that regulatory measures on winterization that came after Uri and Elliot were net-positive for the grid.
"However, we cannot ignore ongoing concerns around natural gas supply and NERC encourages entities across the gas-electric value chain to take the actions necessary to prepare for extreme cold, to keep gas flowing, and to keep the lights and furnaces on," he stressed.
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 Trillion (USD).
