Industrial Info Resources Data Shows Nigeria Leads in Grassroot Refinery Projects

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Written by Paul Wiseman for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

Instead of exporting crude and importing refined products, Nigeria's goal is to use its own oil to supply itself and Africa. Industrial Info Resources is tracking $10.74 billion in Nigerian grassroot refinery capital spending with expected completion in 2026-2030.

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Growth Goals and Progress

It turns out that the U.S. is not the only nation looking for energy independence. Nigeria has similar goals and is leading the world in adding new capacity for refining the oil it produces.

According to Industrial Info Resources data, there is $10.74 billion in Nigerian grassroot refinery capital spending with expected completion in 2026-2030. Its count of 24 new plants in various stages of development expected online before 2031 puts it significantly ahead of the second and third place nations, the U.S. and Iran, who have 11 each (see chart). Iraq is fourth with eight and China comes in fifth with five.



Nigeria ranked 16th in the world in oil production in 2023 according to Investopedia, producing 1.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in June of this year, a six-year high according to the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC). It is sixth in population (242 million), leading the continent of Africa in both categories, so this would seem a worthy goal.

Industrial Info Resources' Vice President of Energy Intelligence Hillary Stevenson breaks down Nigeria's current operations.

"Nigeria currently has 732,000 bpd of operational refining capacity (combined crude and condensate), which could increase to 2.635 million bpd by the end of 2030. Most of the increase we're tracking is from grassroot plants (1.119 million bpd), of which 444,000 bpd is already under construction or engineered.

"The other 785,000 bpd of additional capacity expected before 2031 are unit additions at existing refineries, including the 700,000-bpd new unit planned at Dangote's Lekki refinery, the largest refinery in the country."

Lekki is Africa's and the world's largest single-train oil refinery. The president of the Dangote Group, which owns the refinery, is the continent's richest person, Aliko Dangote.

The Industrial Info Resources Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Petroleum Refining Plant Database offers a detailed profile of the Dangote refinery.

Key Nigerian Additions

IIR reports that AIPCC Energy Limited's 30,000-bpd grassroot Koko Refinery is expected to begin test runs in September, with commercial operations beginning by the end of October. That would be almost exactly two years after its construction began on October 15, 2024.

Koko is one of four refineries under construction in Nigeria. An additional three plants have reached the engineering phase, while 17 more are planned to come online by the end of 2030, according to Industrial Info Resources.

Best Laid Plans

Stevenson points out that "grassroots projects can suffer delays. Dangote took nearly 10 years to build. Its authorization for expenditure came in 2014, but wasn't completed until 2024. And it didn't reach full production until 2025." For more information, see the February 20, 2025, article - Africa's Largest Refinery Ready for Full Production.

Four months later it was making some progress, but less than expected. See this June 16, 2025 article, Despite Rocky Start, Dangote Refinery Helps Nigeria Slash Gasoline Imports by 67%. Repeated breakdowns and repair delays have plagued Lekki since its start, but it's hardly alone--others have suffered the same issues.

The part about gasoline imports is key to the energy independence model for Nigeria. For decades it sent almost all of its crude oil overseas to be refined. It then imported its gasoline, diesel, and other refined products--at a significant markup--back into the country. This creates a huge trade deficit.

Refining its own oil would eliminate that economic disadvantage, along with removing reliance on other nations for processing a key part of its power requirements.

Even with the setbacks, progress continues. For more information, see April 13, 2026, article - Nigeria's Refining Sector Undergoing Major Transformation. The article explains the move from government-operated refineries that often suffered from lack of maintenance, to privately-owned refineries that would move the nation toward self-sufficiency.

Energy security--processing its own crude to supply refined products in Nigeria and to much of Africa--was a key impetus for Aliko Dangote to invest heavily in the Lekki refinery, and as seen, it did move the needle significantly, even if not to the extent hoped for.

By the Numbers

• 24: Number of Nigerian refinery projects due for completion by 2030
• 9: Number of refinery projects in that time frame in each the U.S. and Iran, who tie for second.

Key Takeaways

• As a top oil producer and export, yet importer of refined products, Nigeria is leading the world in new refinery projects to reverse that trend.
• As home to the massive Dangote Lekki refinery the trend has been upward, but challenges remain.

About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).