Will Trump Moves Provide Long-term Boost to U.S. Coal?

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Written by John Egan for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

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Summary

The Trump administration's efforts to boost U.S. coal mining, coal exports and use of coal in electric generation are expected to provide a short-term boost in the economic activity around the fossil fuel. But there remain uncertainties about the longer-term implications for coal and coal-fired generation in the U.S.

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Coal Benefits from Trump Actions, Market Decisions

U.S. electric generators used about 12% more thermal coal in 2025 than they did in 2024, reversing a decades-long decline in the domestic use of thermal coal, according to data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA). The agency said the increase was due to a combination of: strong electric demand growth; the relatively high price of natural gas, a competing fuel for electric generation; and a hotter-than-average summer, which drove up electricity use.

Industrial Info Resources is tracking about 332 capital and maintenance projects in the U.S. coal mining industry valued at about $7 billion. But much of that planned spend is for metallurgical coal or thermal coal mine closures. Readers can view the project plans here.

Last year's increased coal-power burn in the U.S. has given rise to a fresh round of optimism by coal interests that a strategic inflection point has been reached, enabling coal to recapture some of the market share in electric fuels it has lost to natural gas and renewables.

By the Numbers

• 12%: The increase in thermal coal use by electric generators in the U.S. in 2025 compared to 2024 coal burn.
• 8%: The projected decrease in U.S. thermal coal power burn in 2026, according to an estimate made by the EIA, before Trump announced plans to boost coal.
• $7 billion: Planned future project spending on capital and maintenance activity for coal mines. Most of that is expected to go to metallurgical coal mines and closure of thermal coal mines.

"The coal industry is strong and coming back," Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon told the 2026 Western Mining Summit in Denver, Colorado, on May 22. He also predicted an increase in exports of Powder River Basin coal to Asian nations through West Coast terminals.

Gordon was one of several coal-state officials by President Donald Trump's side on June 4 when he announced three moves to inject an estimated US$685 million to support coal mining, coal exports and the use of coal in electric generation. For more on that, see June 5, 2026, article - Trump Designates US$685 Million to Support U.S. Coal, Power. Readers can view a plant list of the 13 coal-fired power facilities in 10 states slated to receive about two-thirds of the federal funding to support and modernize their facilities. For more on those plants, see June 15, 2026, article - Trump U.S. Coal Power Plant Funding Includes Execution and Funding Risk.

Trump's moves include designating $75 million in federal funds to support construction of a new coal export facility in Oakland, California. The Industrial Info Resources Global Market Intelligence (GMI) Metals & Minerals Project and Plant databases include the terminal project report and plant profile.

In years past, Democrat-led states and the Biden administration had blocked several proposed coal export terminals on the West Coast. Several terminals in the region are operating, but they are running at full capacity. And the export terminal in Richmond, California, the Levin-Richmond Terminal, is scheduled to stop transporting coal entirely by the end of 2026 as part of a litigation settlement.

'Subtle' Early Signs of Coal's Recovery

Thermal coal is coming back, but the early signs are "subtle," Emily Arthun, chief executive of the American Coal Council, told Industrial Info Resources in an interview. "I absolutely believe use of thermal coal is at an inflection point."

She noted that demand for thermal coal is rising in part due to the delay in retiring coal-fired generators. For more on that, see April 30, 2026, article -- U.S. Coal-Fired Power Plant Retirements Slowed in 2025, Future is Uncertain. Trump also lifted moratoria on new mining activity in the Powder River Basin of southeastern Montana and northeastern Wyoming, which could set the stage for increased production from the region that provides about half of the country's coal.

Arthun pointed to a late-2025 decision by Basin Electric Power Cooperative to conduct a front-end engineering (FEED) study exploring construction of a second coal-fired unit at the cooperative's Dry Fork Power Station in Gilette, Wyoming. She said there are several other signs, such as claims from carbon-sequestration company 8 Rivers that its technology can be used to burn fossil fuels without producing air emissions.

The Countervailing View: 2025 Was a One-Time Event

Despite the hopes of its advocates, it's not yet clear that U.S. thermal coal is poised for an upswing.

Joseph Govreau, vice president of research for the Global Metals & Minerals industry for Industrial Info Resources, said Trump's actions "definitely will have an impact, at least in the short run. I am not sure if they can get the upgrades at those 13 existing coal power plants up and operating prior to end of Trump's term. I think any new coal-fired generation investment will take years until it impacts coal supply."

"I see the president's June 4 steps as sustaining the current temporary bump in coal demand for the next couple of years and then we'll have to see what happens," Govreau continued. "King Coal wants to take a nap but keeps getting nudged awake."

In fact, there is ample evidence to suggest that increased coal use in U.S. power generation last year was a one-time event. In data released before Trump's June 4 announcement, the EIA said it expected lower demand from electricity generators for 2026 and 2027. The White House actions may change that outlook.

U.S. electric demand rose a robust 2.4% last year, which is significantly higher than prior years' demand growth. But several one-time factors contributed to electric demand growth, which may or may not be repeated in 2026 and beyond. Weather and natural gas prices are hard-to-predict X factors that could affect future demand for coal.

There has been a little investment in U.S. thermal coal mine restarts or life extensions, but nothing significant, said Loretta Clark, vice president of research for North American Metals & Minerals for Industrial Info Resources. And there have been no plans to invest in U.S. greenfield thermal coal mines, she added.

In fact, she continued, Industrial Info Resources is tracking the planned closure of nearly 40 U.S. thermal coal mines. While some of those planned closures are well off in the future, none of the planned shutdowns have been cancelled.

Govreau said, "The acid test for whether thermal coal is coming back or not will be the level of project activity we see in coal mines. Until the president's June 4 Oval Office announcements, I thought last year's surge in thermal coal demand was temporary."

However, "There's a lot of litigation that has not been settled yet around the president's energy and environmental agenda. Stay tuned," he added.

Key Takeaways

• Coal advocates have cheered the 12% gain in use of thermal coal by the U.S. power sector in 2025.
• They have further cheered Trump's actions to support coal mining, coal export and greater use of coal in electric generation.
• But there are a number of reasons to think 2025's gain was mostly attributable to one-time events that may or may not be repeated in 2026 and 2027.

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About Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, Industrial Info Resources is tracking over 250,000 current and future projects worth $30.2 Trillion (USD).