At the Next Light, Turn Right: EU Voters Push Back Against Energy Transition, Immigration

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Written by Paul Wiseman for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--In line with pre-election polling, European Union (EU) voters last weekend slashed their support for European Parliament (EP) parties espousing energy transition and environmental issues, largely due to concerns over the cost and inconvenience of switching away from fossil fuels. Stemming the tide of refugees flooding Europe from the Middle East and elsewhere was another foundational issue.

This is a significant reversal of fortune for climate activists, who received record numbers of votes in the previous election cycle of 2019. Based on that election, the EU adopted the Green Deal, a major collection of legislation setting goals and procedures for reaching carbon-neutral status by 2050.

Many on the right have campaigned on their contention that the EU's ban on internal combustion engines starting in 2035 is unreasonably soon, as well as being overly burdensome on the people and the infrastructure.

And the Winner Is....
Based on European Parliament figures posted at the time of this writing, the big winner in the EU was the center-right European People's Party, which was already in power. This coalition is made up of France's Les Républicains and Germany's Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The EPP is likely to gain nine seats over its 2019 total, this time reaching 185. Retaining the second spot, which also was won in 2019, is the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats with 137 seats. This group includes German Chancellor Olaf Sholtz's party.

By nation, center-right parties finished first in Germany, Greece, Poland and Spain, and gained significant ground in Hungary. In France the National Rally, led by Marine Le Pen, doubled up on President Emanuel Macron's centrist Renaissance Party. National Rally is expected to come in with around 32% of the votes, while the Renaissance Party is looking at about 15%. Le Pen campaigned on a platform of immigration reform, nationalism, and on slowing down the race toward energy transition.

In what analysts are calling a gamble to halt the far right's surge, French President Emanuel Macron has dissolved the lower house of the French Parliament and called a snap election. While he hopes to wake up his supporters and energize the center-left vote, Le Pen also sees it as an opportunity for her side. Macron, as president, was not up for re-election this year, having three more years on his term. But should Le Pen's party gain significant ground in this new election it could put the French government into gridlock for the rest of Macron's tenure.

Italy's ruling right-of-center Georgia Meloni's Fratelli d'Italia (Italian Brotherhood) gained more support, to 29% and adding four seats in the Italian parliament. But the center-left also grew, with the Democratic Party (PD) reaching 24%, its best total in 10 years. Meloni is Italy's first-ever female prime minister and is set to maintain that role. PD and its leader, Elly Schlein, are the leading opposition party. Even with these changes, analysts expect no significant interruption in Meloni's protectionist agenda.

Other Results
Many green parties took it on the chin, with France's Renew Europe losing 22 seats in the EP, followed by the Greens/European Free Alliance. Renew Europe is the party that includes the French president.

This change has been on the radar for at least several months. Between 2019 and 2023, according to polls cited in February 2024 by POLITICO, support for the 2050 climate goals dropped in all but eight of the EU's 27 nations--and three of those eight just remained even. Those with increased support were Luxembourg, Greece, Malta, Ireland and Croatia. The biggest drops were seen (in order of biggest to smallest change, from -15% to -11%) were in Finland, Estonia, Czech Republic, Slovakia and Romania. This was borne out in the actual elections.

In The Netherlands, far right parties including that of Geert Wilders gained the most seats, but the green-left's total is still more. Current Prime Minister Mark Rutte, in the position since 2010, resigned in 2022 but is leading in an interim role until this election is settled and a new prime minister is elected.

Other Issues
In addition to immigration and energy, farm issues regarding petroleum-based pesticides are also in play. In the EU's dominant economies--Germany, France and Italy--observers feel the election will not signal major change in meeting climate goals, but rising opposition could slow some initiatives in that category.

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