Turkey's Oil & Gas Imports Could Rise to $68 Billion in 2012

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Turkey's oil and gas imports could rise to $68 billion this year because of the high level of uncertainity regarding global oil prices, according to Fatih Birol, the chief economist for the International Energy Agency. This is having significant impact on Europe. "Higher prices from lower supply resulting from Middle East tensions could rapidly accelerate the oil and gas imports to Europe to $500 billion for the current year," Birol said.

"In the forseeable future, oil prices will stay above $120 per barrel this year. This may result a mild recession in Europe and also a sharp drop in the Turkish growth rate," Birol said.

Turkey's oil and natural gas imports totaled $54.1 billion in 2011, which made up 22% of the country's total imports. Vulnerabilities to oil are very significant, said Timothy Ash, the head of emerging market research for the Royal Bank of Scotland. In a March 19 research note, Ash said that the each $10 per barrel increase in the oil price adds $5 billion in terms of energy import costs, which feeds through to the current account deficit. In its mid-term economic program, the Turkish government predicts 4% growth for this year. The Central Bank of Turkey predicts an average oil price of $105 per barrel.

Oil-consuming nations are trying to sustain growth in the face of rising crude prices, while producers are seeking to balance their national budgets without hurting demand.

Brent Crude has gained 17% this year, mainly on concerns that a conflict involving Iran may choke off exports from the Persian Gulf and limit market supplies. Prices surged last year after a revolution in Libya stopped exports from the North African country.

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