UN Report: Global Renewable Energy Supply Potential Greater than Demand Through 2050

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Written by Richard Finlayson, Senior International Editor for Industrial Info Resources--The United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has drafted a 1,000-page report on global renewable energy development through 2050. The report is now being discussed, prior to approval by national representatives in a meeting in Abu Dhabi.

Tagged as the bible of renewable energy, the report says that wind and solar energy will surge by 2050, and significant cost cuts will come from expected advances in renewable energy technologies.

In 2008, renewable energy contributed about 12.9% of the global primary energy supply. Bioenergy, primarily used as firewood in developing nations, accounted for 10.2% of the world's total energy supply, followed by hydropower, wind, geothermal, solar and ocean energy. The majority of the 164 global renewable energy scenarios presented in the report show that renewable energy will supply more than 100 exajoules (EJ) per year by 2050. Many of the scenarios show that by 2050, renewable energy could supply between 200 to 400 EJ per year. In 2008, global supply from renewable energy was 64 EJ, compared with a primary energy demand of 492 EJ. The exajoule is typically used to measure global energy use and represents 10 to the 18th power joules. In 2008-09, about 140,000 MW of additional generation capacity came from renewables from a global total of 300,000 MW of added power.

In terms of cumulative carbon dioxide emissions savings, the 220 billion to 560 billion tons that could be eliminated by using renewables from 2010 to 2015 contrasts with the 1.53 trillion tons of cumulative fossil and industrial carbon dioxide emissions for the same period in a non-renewable scenario.

Investment in renewables could be $1.36 trillion to $5.1 trillion for the decade through 2020 and $1.49 trillion to $7.18 trillion from 2012 to 2030. But, the report summary says, only about 2.5% of this potential growth will happen based on the current growth trajectory for renewable energy. A complete shift to renewable energy sources would cost global markets about $12.3 trillion by 2030. A global investment of about $5.1 trillion in the next decade and a further $7.1 trillion between 2020 and 2030 will be required to complete the shift. In some of the more positive scenarios, renewable energy accounts for up to 77% of global energy production by 2050, says the report.

In terms of recent expansion, developing countries host more than 50% of renewable power capacity, with China leading in 2009. The report says that studies have consistently found that the total global technical potential for renewable energy is substantially higher than both current and projected future global energy demand. Solar power has the highest technical potential, but the scenarios did not indicate an obvious single dominant renewable energy technology on a global level.

The cost of most renewable energy technologies has declined, and significant technical advancements and cost reductions are expected. Currently, the levelized cost of many renewable energy technologies is higher than market energy prices, although in other cases, renewable energy is already economically competitive.

Climate change could mean that species of trees might grow in different regions, cloud formation could affect solar radiation levels, and rainfall shifts could affect hydropower. Research into these possibilities is just beginning, said the report. Even without efforts to address climate change, renewable energy can be expected to expand and has already led to substantial cost savings in impoverished rural areas that lack grid access.

The International Energy Agency (Paris, France) estimates that $20 trillion is required for energy infrastructure expansion to meet demand by 2030.

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