Energy Price Trends Follow U.S. Inflation in Move Lower

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Written by Daniel Graeber for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--While volatile, the long-term trend in commodity prices is supporting an increase in disposable income for U.S. taxpayers, the federal government reported Friday.

The Commerce Department on Friday reported that both personal income and disposable personal income increased by 0.3% month-on-month to July. In terms of costs, consumers were most burdened by strains from housing.

"Prices for goods decreased by less than 0.1% and prices for services increased 0.2%," the Commerce Department stated on Friday. "Food prices increased 0.2% and energy prices increased by less than 0.1%."

Consumer-level inflation peaked after vaccines were introduced to control the spread of the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19, opening up economies after a long period of tight social restrictions. Consumer-level inflation topped 9% in June 2022, a situation compounded by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As one of the world's leading oil and gas producers, Western-backed sanctions imposed on Russia upended the commodities sector.

The price for Brent crude oil, the global benchmark, reached $115 per barrel in June 2022 and retail gasoline prices for U.S. taxpayers hit $5 per gallon, crimping much of their discretionary spending.

U.S. President Joe Biden tried to address runaway gasoline prices by tapping the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, while central bank officials took on inflation with increased lending rates.

Rates may be lower by September as the economy slows down enough to bring inflation closer to its 2% annual target rate. Commodity prices too are on the decline, with Brent trading in the upper $70 range to end August.

For Friday, travel club AAA listed the national average retail price for a gallon of regular unleaded at $3.35, compared to $3.83 per gallon at this time last year. Data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the data cruncher for the U.S. Energy Department, show gasoline inventories, which can serve as a barometer for general demand, remain 3% above year-ago levels, confirming the sluggish economic year, improved fuel efficiency and an increase in electric vehicles.

"The decrease in prices paid at the pump was driven by weak growth in global and U.S. petroleum product demand, continued crude oil production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, and China's slowing economy," EIA added.

OPEC+ refers to the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-member state allies such as Russia. That group is coordinating to keep crude oil levels in line with demand through voluntary production restraint.

In June, OPEC+ pledged to exercise restraint through 2025, creating concerns about a tight market. The price of crude oil, however, has remained suppressed for much of the year, due largely to a weak global economy.

More relief may be coming for consumers after the long Labor Day weekend in the United States, meanwhile, as refiners can switch to a winter blend of gasoline starting September 16. The winter blend is less expensive because there are fewer processing steps necessary to keep gasoline from evaporating in the tank.

Labor Day in the United States marks the unofficial end of summer as school resumes in September. Travel volumes typically fall off between Labor Day and the end-of-year holiday season.

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