EU Swaps Russian Gas Addiction for U.S. LNG

Written by Martin Lynch, European News Editor for IIR News Intelligence (Sugar Land, Texas)

Summary

Europe is running the risk of swapping its historic addiction to Russian gas imports to one on liquefied natural gas (LNG) from the U.S.

U.S. Dominating LNG Mix

The European Union (EU) could be reliant on U.S. LNG for 75-80% of its total LNG by 2030 if it  fulfills all its U.S. supply deals and its gas demand reduction efforts falter. That figure already stands at 57% for 2025, four times higher than in 2021, according to a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics & Financial Analysis (IEEFA), a global team of energy finance analysts. By 2030, 40% of the EU's total gas and LNG imports could be from the U.S., up from 27% in 2025, creating a "potentially high-risk geopolitical dependency" that could cause the EU to miss its gas demand reduction commitments. 

Ditching Russian Gas

Following Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the EU has greatly reduced its reliance on Russian gas. The bloc's imports of Russian gas (including pipeline gas and LNG) fell by 75% between 2021 and 2025. However, Russian gas is still making its way into Europe. The European Commission (EC) recognised that Russian gas still accounted for an estimated 13% of EU imports in 2025, worth more than 15 billion euro (US$17.7 billion) annually. It plans to stamp that out in the next two years. Industrial Info reported earlier this month that the EU has approved a total ban on Russian gas. LNG imports under short-term contracts signed before June 17, 2025, will be banned on April 25, 2026, and June 17 for pipeline gas. A full ban will take effect for LNG imports from the beginning of 2027 and for pipeline gas imports from autumn 2027. For additional information, see February 10, 2026, article - EU Approves Total Ban on Russian Gas.

The Growing Role of LNG

LNG imports have become vital in shoring up the EU's gas supplies, thanks to the fast-tracking of many new LNG terminals. The shift away from Russian gas has increased the EU's strategic dependency on U.S. LNG, "the most expensive LNG for EU buyers", stated IEEFA. "EU imports of U.S. LNG rose from 21 billion cubic meters (Bcm) in 2021 to an estimated 81 Bcm in 2025, an almost fourfold increase. This means that EU countries sourced 57% of their LNG imports from the U.S. in 2025." Thirteen EU countries imported U.S. LNG in 2025, with the Netherlands, France, Spain, Italy and Germany accounting for 75% of the bloc's imports.

The One-Sided Trade Deal

Last summer, the EU signed a "last-minute" trade deal with the U.S., agreeing on a baseline 15% tariff on a range of EU goods to avoid the implementation of a harsher 30% tariff. The deal included a three-year commitment from Europe to buy US$750 billion worth of oil and gas--including LNG--alongside nuclear fuel and semiconductors. For additional information, see July 29, 2025, article - Europe Seals 'Last-Minute' Tariff Deal with U.S. IEEFA said the deal "effectively ties the EU's energy supply to one seller, risking energy security and jeopardising gas reduction plans. If EU countries were to spend US$750 billion on renewables instead, the EU could install about 546 gigawatts (GW) of combined solar and wind capacity. This would boost energy security and could bring down electricity prices."

Recent LNG Deals

IEEFA noted that EU dependency on U.S. LNG is set to deepen following a spate of deals signed at the Gastech conference in Milan last September and the Partnership for Transatlantic Energy Cooperation (P-TEC) meeting in Athens in November. If all those deals materialise and EU gas demand reduction efforts falter, EU imports of U.S. LNG will hit around 115 Bcm annually by 2030, accounting for 75--80% of the bloc's total LNG imports.

EU Seeking Alternatives

In the past month, the EU has been accelerating talks with other potential suppliers, especially following President Donald Trump's threats to take over Greenland and impose fresh tariffs on eight European nations that are opposed to his proposal. EC Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen said that the bloc is looking at taking more LNG from Canada, Qatar and North African countries. He said the Greenland issue was a "wake-up call" for the region and added: "We are speaking to countries around the world that are able to deliver LNG to us. I definitely hear this when speaking to energy ministers and heads of state from all over Europe that there is a growing concern."

Key Takeaways

• Europe running the risk of becoming over-reliant on LNG from the U.S. 
• U.S. LNG accounted for 57% of EU LNG imports in 2025, four times higher than in 2021.
• Unchecked, that percentage could hit 75-80% by 2030.

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