Exponential Solar Power Forecasts Big Quantum Jump in Project Technology

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Written by Richard Finlayson, Senior International Editor for Industrial Info Resources--As global estimates for the installation of solar-powered generation projects rise exponentially, the question arises of whether solar power equipment suppliers can meet the increasing demand.

Technological breakthroughs and economies of scale will make solar power competitive with other power generation technologies within six years, and this will assist India in adding 67,000 megawatts (MW) of solar power by 2022, reports KPMG (Amstelveen, Netherlands). This forecast is 300% more than the currently accepted target of about 20,000 MW.

The report says that $5.5 billion could be saved in a 30% reduction of coal imports by 71 million tons annually from 2022 onward, as solar power contributes 7% of the country's electricity needs. It is estimated that India could have 17,000 MW of solar by 2017, and KPMG maintains that another 50 MW could be added by 2022.

Technological innovations and developments will improve the efficiency of systems, resulting in low-cost equipment manufacturing. To reach this breakthrough for solar applications and achieve grid parity by 2016-17 the government must provide support in the intervening period to sustain growth in solar technologies. The price of solar power is projected to fall by 7% per year through 2021, and solar capacity could reduce India's emissions by 2.5%, which represents 10% of the 20-25% reduction that India promised at the Copenhagen climate change summit.

Indian states with high solar radiation levels such Rajasthan, Gujarat and Tamil Nadu do not have the buffer of coal reserves and have policies supportive of solar projects that could see them reaching grid parity sooner than other states.

In a presentation on the renewable energy certificates, India's National Load Dispatch Center (NLDC) says that only 19,973 MW of the country's 200,000 MW has been tapped to date. Wind power contributes 14,157 MW of installed capacity out of a potential for the power source of 45,000 MW. There is minimum wind power potential in the country's heartland, which has the maximum energy demand.

But solar power, with the potential of 100,000 MW, has an installed capacity of a mere 38 MW. Renewables as a whole have 11% of the country's installed capacity and contribute only 4 % of total electricity generation.

The NLDC reports that Rajasthan has a solar energy potential of 39,623 MW, whereas states such as Orissa and Madhya Pradesh have only 304 MW and 87 MW potential, respectively.

New solar technologies have moved out of the laboratory and are now being tested in the field. To attain the high-end additional power forecasts, the technologies must provide the means to manufacture accessible, low-cost equipment for easy and quick installation. One or two winning technologies could see the forecast targets within reach and change the power supply equation.

For related information, see April 19, 2011, article - Technological Advances, Policy Support Brighten Photovoltaic Sector's Future in North America, Asia.

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