IIR Webinar: Baseload Power Sources Prove Important in Intermittent Wind, Solar Buildout

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (IIR) (Sugar Land, Texas)--Earlier this week, Industrial Info presented a webinar featuring Britt Burt, Industrial Info's vice president of research for the Power Industry, in which he highlighted the trends and drivers being seen across the world's power sector. Burt and Shaheen Chohan, Industrial Info's vice president of Global Analytics, discussed what is occurring across the various fuel types that drive the power sector as well as what to expect in the future. While wind and solar dominate power construction, their intermittent natures are highlighting the need for steady, reliable sources of baseload generation.

Solar & Wind
These two renewable fuel sources outpace other types of projects, with solar power very much in the lead. The world saw a doubling of the amount of solar capacity installed in 2023 from 2022 (58% of this in China), and some estimates expect 13-20% growth in solar capacity each year through 2028.

Wind power also remains a strong power contender across the world. While siting an onshore wind project can prove difficult, large offshore wind installations are becoming more frequent. COP28 called for a tripling of wind capacity to 11,000 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. Burt said he does not believe this goal will be achieved, although a great deal of wind power will be installed between now and the new decade.

Hydropower
While there are not many grassroot hydropower projects underway in the U.S., these plants provide the world's largest amount of renewable generation. The average age of a hydropower plant is 33 years, with 40% of these being more than 50 years old. As these plants age, major modernizations and refurbishments become necessary, often taking years to complete. While often overlooked in today's rush to wind and solar power, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that hydropower will remain the largest renewable electricity source through at least 2028.

Siting of these plants can be difficult, often resulting in pushback due to environmental concerns. Burt expects to see increased movement toward pumped-storage hydro plants, which pump water to a high elevation in times of low power and release it through turbines when needed, representing a form of stored energy. Burt said projections call for about 25 GW of hydropower being added annually over the next few years, a figure that could double after 2030 as hydropower's reliable, emissions-free generation becomes increasingly sought after.

Natural Gas
Natural gas, with its cleaner emissions profile than coal, is taking up some of the slack left behind by retiring coal-fired plants. While there still are concerns about greenhouse gas emissions from this fuel, these emissions are less than those caused by coal combustion, making natural gas a cleaner option for the reliable baseload power at the heart of any power system.

While not seeing quite the buildout of several years ago, Industrial Info is tracking more than 100 active natural gas power projects in the U.S. and Canada, and most utilities have kept natural gas-fired generation in their integrated resource plans, which stretch several years into the future. Burt said he expects natural gas construction to be strong over the coming decade as the intermittent nature of the leading renewable sources necessitates a steady, reliable source of baseload power.

Nuclear
Nuclear energy provides another reliable source of baseload power, but despite its near zero-emissions profile, comes with some drawbacks, including public pushback in some areas and a lack of suitable nuclear waste disposal sites. Rather than the larger traditional plants that run into several billion dollars in spending and require long timelines to construct, Burt said he expects to see increasing movement toward advanced reactors and small modular reactors (SMRs) that come with a smaller footprint and can be constructed in much less time. Several plans for SMRs have been proposed to various nuclear regulatory agencies for review.

Coal
Coal is losing importance as a fuel type and, outside of two key countries, isn't seeing a lot of grassroot construction. But those two countries, China and India, are building out coal-fired power in big way. Despite an increase in renewable generation and goals in both countries, the reliable, inexpensive baseload power provided by coal in the face of increasing power demand provides a viable reason for India and China to keep building coal plants. Outside of these locations, however, Burt said he doesn't expect to see much newbuild coal-fired construction.

If you are interested in listening to the webinar in its entirety or simply want to review a few key highlights, the presentation soon will be available in Industrial Info's On-Demand Webinar Library.

Industrial Info Resources (IIR) is the leading provider of industrial market intelligence. Since 1983, IIR has provided comprehensive research, news and analysis on the industrial process, manufacturing and energy related industries. IIR's Global Market Intelligence (GMI) helps companies identify and pursue trends across multiple markets with access to real, qualified and validated plant and project opportunities. Across the world, IIR is tracking over 200,000 current and future projects worth $17.8 trillion (USD).