IIR's August 4 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
Hundreds of Israeli ex-officials appeal to Trump to help end Gaza war		A group of some 600 retired Israeli security officials, including former heads of intelligence agencies, have written to US President Donald Trump to pressure Israel to immediately end the war in Gaza. "It is our professional judgement that Hamas no longer poses a strategic threat to Israel," the officials said. Their appeal comes amid reports that Netanyahu is pushing to expand military operations in Gaza as indirect ceasefire talks with Hamas have stalled.	BBC	NextDecade, Woodfibre LNG, Low U.S. Gasoline Demand: Your Daily Energy News
Stakes rise in the Russia-Ukraine war as Trump's deadline for the Kremlin approaches		The coming week could bring an important moment in the war between Russia and Ukraine, as U.S. President Donald Trump's deadline for the Kremlin to reach a peace deal approaches - or it could simply melt away. U.S. President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff was expected in Moscow in the middle of this week, just before Trump's Friday deadline for the Kremlin to stop the killing or face potentially severe economic penalties from Washington.	AP News	U.S. To Halt Designating Offshore Areas for Wind Energy
Oil falls as OPEC+ proceeds with September output increase		Oil prices fell to their lowest in a week on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to another large output increase in September, though traders remained wary of further sanctions on Russia. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, together known as OPEC+, agreed on Sunday to raise oil production by 547,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September. The latest in a series of accelerated output increases aimed at capturing market share was in line with market expectations and marks a full and early reversal of the group's largest tranche of output cuts, amounting to about 2.5 million bpd, or about 2.4% of global demand.	Reuters	Enterprise Overcomes Rough Market with Strong Permian Output
US companies cut investments in China to record lows. Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: On Semiconductor, Wayfair, Spotify, Tesla and more		In a significant shift in the U.S.-China economic relationship, American companies have reduced their planned investments in China to a record low, according to a recent survey from the U.S.-China Business Council. The survey, conducted amid renewed trade tensions and spiraling tariffs, found that only 48% of U.S. companies plan to invest in China this year, a sharp drop from 80% in 2024. The report attributes this decline to shaken business confidence and derailed investment planning, driven by the ongoing trade dispute and a broader lack of optimism regarding China's economic outlook and the prospect of improved bilateral relations. Market movements were driven by a mix of corporate earnings, strategic acquisitions, and labor disputes. Amphenol and CommScope saw significant gains after announcing a major acquisition deal, while Wayfair, Energizer, and Tyson Foods all surged on strong quarterly results that beat Wall Street expectations. Conversely, Berkshire Hathaway saw a slight dip following a decline in operating profit, and On Semiconductor and Bruker fell after issuing disappointing forward-looking guidance. Meanwhile, Boeing slipped as 3,200 machinists went on strike, while Spotify and Tesla posted gains related to a price hike and a new compensation package for Elon Musk, respectively.	The World Economic Forum CNBC	Alberta Leaders Point to Oil, Gas Growth Amid U.S. Trade Disputes Southern Copper in Talks with Mexican Government for Investments Worth US$10.2 Billion
Natural Gas News: Heatwaves Loom but Market Pressured by Strong Supply, Inventory		U.S. natural gas futures are sliding at the start of the week, with traders watching closely as prices approach key technical support at $2.972. A sustained break below this level could open the door for further downside toward the longer-term support at $2.885. Despite forecasts for stronger heat in the coming weeks, supply fundamentals remain the dominant market driver, pressuring prices. Weather-driven demand remains limited in the near term. NatGasWeather reported that national demand will stay light through Wednesday.. While the weather models support stronger power burn demand in the medium term, current trading action shows the market is not pricing in those risks just yet, suggesting skepticism about the durability of this heat pattern.	FX Empire	Baker Hughes Nabs Chart--and Bigger Role in LNG, Clean Energy
IMF lifts 2025 GDP emerging economies' outlook on improved China view		The International Monetary Fund raised its outlook for economic growth across emerging market and developing economies this year to 4.1% from 3.7%, driven by frontloading and a more upbeat view on China. In an update published on Tuesday to its flagship World Economic Outlook report, the IMF also nudged its 2026 economic growth forecast for emerging economies up to 4.0% from 3.9%. China received the largest upgrade with the IMF predicting the world's number two economy would expand 4.8% this year compared with a previous forecast for 4.0%.	Reuters	IEA: U.S. Coal Use to Rise in 2025, China Use to Drop Slightly
Trump's Seabed Mining Plan Sparks Backlash		United States President Donald Trump aims to develop the country's seabed mining industry to access a supply of critical minerals, which are vitally needed across several industries, to reduce reliance on China. However, as seabed mining is an international issue, with strong regulations and norms on operations, Trump's plan has attracted widespread criticism from international organisations and environmentalists worldwide The International Seabed Authority and its member states condemned the move as a breach of international law and a threat to marine ecosystems. Mining firm TMC faces scrutiny from international partners, while the ISA warned that rogue actions could result in revoked exploration rights.	OilPrice	Climate Change Impacts on Renewable Energy Across Western North America Commercial Deployment of Nuclear Fusion Before 2030? Proponents See Hope
Week 07/28/25 - 08/04/25		One deadline - for Tariffs - passes while another - for Russia to reach a peace deal in Ukraine - draws nigh. Meanwhile, the world commodity and economic markets are sorting through the trade deals which have been agreed upon, albeit knowing others (China, Canada, Brazil, Mexico, etc.) await. However, even amid all this marketplace chaos and uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reports that emerging economies' GDP outlook is improved on a more upbeat view on China. Although, U.S. companies have cut their investments in China to record lows. Does this mean China needs the U.S. less for its economic engine? In the moment the crystal ball says, "Doubtful," though much still has to be sorted and settled. Like Mr. Oil Market parsing the OPEC+ news that more barrels are about to hit the world waterways. Is this an oversupplied market? Or is the IMF news on China a harbinger that global demand is resilient to U.S. Tariffs and Trade Deals shaking the world marketplace. That global demand in the form of GDP might be stronger than expected. Maybe, maybe not as the U.S. economy is sorting out its weak jobs numbers, while more Q2 corporate earnings "make the news." Tune in to what hits the wires and airwaves this week to ascertain if there is clarity on what lies in store for these commodity and economic markets as the Magic 8-Ball says "Outlook Murky" (very murky indeed).
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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