IIR's February 5 Market Scorecard Brings You Breaking Geopolitical News

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Researched by Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas)--Stay current with the latest geopolitical events, and more importantly, instantly connect to how these events may impact you and your business strategies.

Event	MarCon*	IIR Comment	Outlet	IIR News
What to know about wave of deadly US strikes in Middle East		In the past 24 hours, the U.S. military has hit more than 100 targets across Iraq, Syria and Yemen, striking Iranian-backed proxies that have ramped up their own attacks on U.S. troops in the region since October. Washington began late Friday with major airstrikes on more than 85 targets across seven locations in Iraq and Syria, a response to a drone strike in Jordan that killed three American soldiers on Sunday.	The Hill	U.S. Rig Count, ExxonMobil: Your Daily Energy News
Middle East Crisis Israel Awaits Hamas Response to Cease-Fire Plan as Blinken Returns to Mideast		Israel was waiting on Monday for Hamas officials to respond to a proposal to pause the fighting in the Gaza Strip and release the remaining hostages there, as Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken headed back to the region seeking to rally support for such a deal. A broadcaster affiliated with Hamas, Al-Aqsa, reported on Sunday that Hamas was still holding consultations on the proposal, a week after it was formulated. Leaders of the group had previously signaled that substantial gaps remained between the two sides, even as representatives from the United States, Egypt and Qatar sought common ground.	The New York Times	EIA: Shipping Times and Rates Affected by Red Sea Dangers
Oil Prices Forecast: US Dollar Surge Challenges Global Demand		Oil prices weaken due to a strong U.S. Dollar and the Fed's hawkish stance, while Middle East tensions alert traders to potential supply disruptions. Bearish Bias Amid Dollar Strength: The crude oil market currently leans towards a bearish outlook, primarily influenced by the strengthening U.S. Dollar. With the fading likelihood of an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve, the dollar's potential rebound is exerting downward pressure on oil prices. Technical Analysis: Last week's steep sell-off has turned both the long-term and intermediate trends lower. The 50-day moving average at $73.46 is resistance, followed by the 200-day moving average at $76.37. The market is currently straddling static support at $72.48. This price is likely to act as the pivot that determines the direction of crude oil on Monday.	FXEmpire	Saudi Arabia Continues Investment in Chemical Projects
OECD raises global growth outlook on US strength		The global economy is on course to hold up better this year than expected only a few months ago as an improved outlook in the United States offsets euro zone weakness, the OECD said on Monday. World economic growth is expected to ease from 3.1% in 2023 to 2.9% this year, better than the 2.7% expected in November in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development's last outlook. In an update of its forecasts for major economies, the Paris-based OECD left its 2025 global estimate unchanged at 3.0%, when growth is expected to be boosted by major central banks rate cuts as inflation pressures subside.	Reuters	Consumer Confidence Rises, but Economic Crocodiles Lurk Under the Surface
Natural Gas Prices Forecast: Traders Eyeing Mid-February for Demand Spike		U.S. natural gas futures dip amid weather shifts, but mid-February cold snap and short-covering rallies could spike demand and prices. Current Market Trends and Speculation Impact: U.S. natural gas futures are showing a downward trend on Monday, reversing earlier gains that were driven by expectations of increased demand due to anticipated colder weather at the end of February. This shift in the market stems from a lack of new buying interest and the resilience of short sellers. Technical Analysis: U.S. natural gas futures are putting in a mixed performance on Monday as traders try to adjust to varying weather forecasts. Although cold is predicted in some parts of February, the news is not likely to be a trend-changing event. Prices continue to hover on both side of the downtrending 50-day moving average. This intermediate trend indicator seems to be controlling the near-term direction of the market.	FXEmpire	IIR North American Outlook: Oil & Gas Here to Stay for Decades
China's Real Estate Crash Threatens Commodity Supplies and Suppliers		The recent liquidation order by a Hong Kong court of debt-ridden Chinese property giant Evergrande has once again raised that dreaded question: is China's economy a ticking time bomb? It is a question experts continue to ask amid worsening Chinese construction news... Experts say that much of the anticipated consequences stemming from a potential Chinese economic crash stems from two factors. For one, if the Chinese government chooses not to intervene and allows the real estate sector to slow down, it would lead to a lending crunch, significantly affecting the financial markets. On the other hand, thousands of suppliers, many of them international, would suffer the effect of the slowdown in metal imports. Even companies like Apple and Volkswagen may start losing revenue from the Chinese market due to household spending taking a hit. If the real estate market does collapse, this would only worsen. China currently spearheads over a third of the world's growth. Even U.S. credit rating agency Fitch recently said that China's slowdown was "casting a shadow over global growth prospects," while downgrading its forecast for 2024 for the entire world.	Oil Price	Two Days Until IIR's Metals & Minerals Webinar!
Week 01/29/24 - 02/05/24		On one side hope, on the other gloom. Hope in that Hamas is slowly deliberating a cease-fire proposal which would release the remaining hostages and pause fighting for an extended period of time. Gloom in that escalation is more likely in the Middle East as the U.S. launches attacks across Iraq, Syria and Yemen in response to the Houthi drone attack on a Jordanian outpost the other week. Meanwhile, back stateside, the dollar is surging, affecting commodities like oil; it seems after the Fed meeting a rate cut is not imminent. Although the OECD posits hope for the global economy due to an improved U.S outlook, China might unduly affect such hope, bringing gloom to the world economy as it continues to wrestle with a real estate crash.
*MarCon (Market Condition 1-5, with 5 being the highest impact) indicates directional bias or price effect for the relevant commodity (Oil, Natural Gas, Chemicals, etc.) and is graded by our team of experts here at IIR.

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